AST SpaceMobile cae un 7% debido a la degradación de las evaluaciones de los analistas y a la turbulencia en el sector de satélites.

Summary
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) tumbles 7.04% to $90.63, erasing $6.86 from its opening price
• Scotiabank downgrades ASTS to 'Underperform' with $45.60 price target, citing valuation concerns
• Intraday range spans $88.25 to $95.34, reflecting volatile retail sentiment and short-selling pressure
• Sector peers like SpaceX and Rocket Lab face regulatory and operational headwinds as LEO congestion intensifies

AST SpaceMobile’s sharp intraday decline has ignited a firestorm of speculation, with analysts and retail traders dissecting the catalysts behind the 7% drop. The stock’s collapse follows a critical downgrade from Scotiabank, which highlighted overvaluation risks and slow customer adoption. Meanwhile, the satellite communications sector remains under pressure as Starlink’s orbital reconfiguration and geopolitical tensions over space debris complicate market dynamics.

Scotiabank’s Bearish Reassessment Sparks Flight to Safety
The 7.04% intraday plunge in AST SpaceMobile shares was directly triggered by Scotiabank’s downgrade to 'Underperform' with a $45.60 price target. The firm cited 'irrational' valuation levels, slow U.S. and Japanese customer adoption, and capital-intensive expansion as key risks. Analyst Andres Coello emphasized that ASTS’s current price 'overshoots' fair value estimates of $45–$55, despite its BlueBird satellite technology. The downgrade coincided with heightened short-selling activity, as short interest climbed to 13.6% in January 2026. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned bullish amid high message volume, but institutional selling pressure overwhelmed retail optimism, dragging the stock below critical support levels.

Satellite Sector Volatility as SpaceX and Rocket Lab Navigate Regulatory and Operational Challenges
The satellite communications sector remains fragmented as SpaceX’s orbital reconfiguration and regulatory scrutiny over space debris amplify sector-wide uncertainty. Rocket Lab (RKLB) has surged 214% year-to-date but faces similar valuation concerns. Meanwhile, Sierra Space’s early completion of SDA tracking satellites highlights defense-sector resilience. AST SpaceMobile’s 32% YTD gain contrasts with sector peers, but its reliance on speculative retail demand exposes it to rapid reversals. Tesla (TSLA), the sector’s de facto leader, rose 0.87% on the day, underscoring divergent performance between tech-driven and capital-intensive satellite plays.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on ASTS’s Volatility with High-Leverage Puts
• 200-day average: $49.51 (far below current price)
• RSI: 69.32 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 5.26 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $59.20–$94.80 (current price near upper band)

AST SpaceMobile’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, with RSI at 69.32 and MACD divergence signaling potential exhaustion. The stock is trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($94.80), suggesting a high probability of mean reversion. Two options contracts stand out for bearish exposure: ASTS20260116P84 and ASTS20260116P85. Both offer high leverage (35.81% and 25.68%) and moderate delta (-0.2896 and -0.3325), balancing directional sensitivity with time decay (theta of -0.0999 and -0.1252).

• ASTS20260116P84
- Type: Put
- Strike: $84
- Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 86.14% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 35.81% (aggressive)
- Delta: -0.2896 (moderate bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.0999 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0267 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $231,725 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.63 per share
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make this contract ideal for short-term bearish bets, with IV at 86.14% reflecting market skepticism.

• ASTS20260116P85
- Type: Put
- Strike: $85
- Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 97.98% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 25.68% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.3325 (strong bearish bias)
- Theta: -0.1252 (accelerated decay)
- Gamma: 0.0249 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $113,619 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $1.15 per share
- Why it stands out: Despite extreme IV, the $85 put offers superior downside capture with a 25.68% leverage ratio, making it a high-reward option for aggressive bears.

Trading Setup: Key support levels at $88.25 (intraday low) and $76.99 (20-day SMA) are critical. A break below $88.25 could trigger a test of the $72.59 (30-day support). Short-term bulls may target a rebound above $95.34 (intraday high), but bearish momentum suggests a test of the $80–$85 range. Given ASTS’s 7.8% turnover rate and 7.8% turnover rate, liquidity remains robust for options trading.

Backtest AST SpaceMobile Stock Performance
The backtest of ASTS's performance after a -7% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 53.17%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.37%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.15%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 25.97% over 30 days, suggesting that while there was some volatility, ASTS exhibited resilience and the potential for recovery.

ASTS at Crossroads: Short-Term Bearish but Long-Term Satellite Sector Resilience Looms
AST SpaceMobile’s 7% intraday drop reflects immediate valuation concerns but masks its long-term potential in the satellite broadband race. The stock’s technicals suggest a near-term correction toward $80–$85, with the $76.99 20-day SMA acting as a critical floor. However, the sector’s resilience—evidenced by Tesla’s 0.87% gain and Sierra Space’s defense contracts—hints at broader tailwinds. Investors should monitor ASTS’s ability to hold above $88.25 and watch for follow-through selling in the options market. For now, the bearish case is compelling, but the satellite sector’s innovation cycle may yet justify ASTS’s lofty valuation in the long term.