AST SpaceMobile Jumps 77.7% in 8-Day Rally on Heavy Volume

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has demonstrated a robust near-term performance, rising 6.88% to close at $86.79 on October 9, 2025. This marks the eighth consecutive daily gain, resulting in a cumulative 77.70% advance over this period, with notably elevated trading volume of 19.38 million shares during the latest session.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a strong bullish continuation pattern, characterized by consecutive long green candles with higher highs and higher lows. The October 8 session formed a bullish Marubozu (minimal wicks), closing near its high of $81.20 after a wide range ($79.82–$91.41), signaling sustained buying pressure. Key resistance now emerges near the October 8 peak of $91.41, while support consolidates around $80.61 (October 9 low). A break above $91.41 could accelerate upside momentum, though caution is warranted after such an extended rally.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average structure confirms a powerful bullish trend. The 50-day MA ($52.12) has crossed above both the 100-day ($47.83) and 200-day MA ($39.15), forming a "golden cross" indicative of sustained upward momentum. Current price ($86.79) trades 66% above the 200-day MA, highlighting extreme bullish extension. While the steep slope of shorter-term MAs suggests persistent strength, the significant divergence from longer-term averages may foreshadow a mean-reversion risk if momentum wanes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a widening positive histogram, with both the MACD line and signal line in strong upward trajectories, reinforcing the bullish trend. KDJ readings (K: 89, D: 85, J: 97) are deeply overbought across all timeframes, with the J-line nearing 100—a level historically preceding short-term pullbacks. While MACD’s strength implies ongoing momentum, the extreme KDJ divergence suggests a potential consolidation phase. A bearish MACD crossover or KDJ reversal below 80 would signal waning upward energy.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) have expanded sharply during the 8-day rally, reflecting heightened volatility. Price consistently hugs the upper band—a sign of directional strength—with the latest close at $86.79 nearing the upper boundary ($89.20). The bandwidth expansion from contraction in late September indicates a volatility breakout. However, the absence of price consolidation near the upper band increases susceptibility to a reversion toward the 20-day SMA ($73.50), particularly if volume diminishes.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume has validated the uptrend, with above-average turnover accompanying each up day. The October 8 surge (43.32 million shares, highest in 90 days) confirmed the breakout above $80. The latest session’s volume, while elevated, was lower than previous up days, hinting at potentially waning participation. Sustained advances beyond $90 require volume expansion to confirm new buyer commitment. Divergence would emerge if prices rise on declining volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (73.5) entered overbought territory (>70) during the rally, peaking near 78 on October 8 before moderating. While this warns of short-term exhaustion, the RSI remains below extreme levels seen during prior parabolic moves (e.g., February 2025, when RSI >90 preceded a 35% correction). Momentum remains intact so long as RSI holds above 60. Traders should monitor for bearish divergences if prices make new highs without corresponding RSI confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the April–October 2025 swing (low: $18.21 on January 30; high: $91.41 on October 8) shows critical retracement zones. The 23.6% level ($74.50) aligns with recent consolidation support, while the 38.2% level ($66.80) overlaps with the 50-day MA. Confluence between the 50-day MA and Fibonacci support near $66.80–$67.00 provides a high-probability pullback target if profit-taking accelerates. A sustained hold above the 23.6% level would favor trend continuation.
Confluence and Divergence
Notable confluence appears near $91.40, where Bollinger Band resistance, the recent price peak, and psychological resistance converge. Conversely, divergences are emerging: While price made higher highs on October 8–9, RSI and KDJ formed marginally lower peaks, and volume failed to confirm the latest high. MACD and moving averages remain harmoniously bullish but are increasingly disconnected from oscillators signaling overextension. This juxtaposition suggests near-term consolidation is likely, though the primary trend remains upward absent a close below $74.50 (Fibonacci 23.6% + October 7 low).