Assessing XRP's Supercycle Potential: A 10-Year Price Target Analysis

The resolution of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple Labs in August 2025 has marked a pivotal turning point for XRP, reshaping its regulatory landscape and unlocking new avenues for institutional adoption. As the cryptocurrency sector grapples with evolving regulatory frameworks, XRP's trajectory over the next decade hinges on a confluence of technical momentum, macroeconomic conditions, and strategic institutional integration. This analysis synthesizes technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and fundamental drivers to project XRP's potential as a 10-year supercycle asset.

Fundamental Drivers: Regulatory Clarity and Institutional Adoption

The SEC's 2025 settlement, which clarified that XRP is not a security in public transactions but classified institutional sales as securities, has provided critical regulatory certainty. Ripple's $50 million settlement-reduced from the SEC's original $125 million demand-allowed the company to redirect capital toward business expansion, including the acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion and the launch of RLUSD, a dollar-backed stablecoin according to analysis. These moves have fortified Ripple's institutional infrastructure, enabling services like cross-margining, OTC trading, and compliance-driven liquidity management.

Institutional adoption has accelerated post-settlement, with Ripple Prime tripling in activity and RLUSD surpassing a $1 billion market cap. Partnerships with Mastercard, WebBank, and Gemini to enable on-chain credit card settlements via RLUSD further underscore XRP's utility in real-world applications according to reports. The approval of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF in late 2025 has also injected institutional capital, with nine additional ETF applications filed by year-end, potentially injecting $5–7 billion into the XRP market by 2026.

Technical Analysis: Momentum and On-Chain Metrics

XRP's technical indicators suggest a bullish phase. As of late 2025, the token trades above its 20-day moving average at $3.4423, with the RSI at 40.9 (neutral) and MACD above the signal line, signaling sustained momentum. A contracting triangle pattern is forming, with key support levels at $2.70 and $2.20, and resistance at $3.30 and $3.62. A breakout above $3.30 could trigger a rally toward $3.66, with on-chain data showing increased whale accumulation and network activity according to analysis.

Longer-term projections hinge on XRP's ability to maintain dominance in cross-border payments via Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform, which reduces settlement times and costs compared to legacy systems like SWIFT. If institutional adoption continues to expand, XRP could reach $4.00 by 2025 and $10–$15 by 2030, contingent on macroeconomic stability and regulatory tailwinds.

10-Year Supercycle Potential: Scenarios and Risks

A 10-year supercycle for XRP would require sustained institutional adoption, favorable regulatory environments, and macroeconomic conditions that favor digital assets. The EU's MiCA and the U.S. GENIUS Act have already enhanced stablecoin compliance, fostering XRP's legitimacy as a utility asset. However, risks persist, including potential Fed tightening cycles, geopolitical shifts, and regulatory reversals.

If XRP's circulating supply is further reduced through buybacks or locked in escrow, and if RLUSD adoption scales to $10 billion in total value locked (TVL), the token could achieve a $5 psychological threshold by 2030, triggering broader institutional investment according to analysis. A $10–$15 target by 2035 would require structural changes, such as expanded real-world usage in emerging markets and integration into global payment corridors according to forecasts.

Conclusion

XRP's 10-year supercycle potential is underpinned by a unique alignment of regulatory clarity, institutional infrastructure, and technical momentum. While short-term volatility remains a factor, the asset's role in modernizing financial infrastructure-via RLUSD, ODL, and ETFs-positions it to outperform in a crypto-adopted future. Investors should monitor macroeconomic signals, regulatory developments, and on-chain activity to capitalize on XRP's long-term trajectory.