Evaluación del impacto estratégico de cambios de política comercial mundial en los sectores tecnológico y de energía de EU y Europa

The recent U.S.-EU trade agreement, finalized in August 2025, marks a pivotal shift in transatlantic economic relations. By reducing tariffs on automobiles and industrial goods and committing to $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases by 2028, the deal addresses long-standing trade imbalances while fostering supply chain resilience. This policy realignment creates a unique opportunity to identify undervalued equities in energy and technology sectors poised to benefit from increased cross-border trade and infrastructure investment.

Energy Sector: A New Era of Export-Driven Growth

The agreement's most immediate impact is on the energy sector, where the EU's procurement of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and nuclear energy is expected to drive demand for domestic producers. According to EU trade data, Cheniere Energy (LNG), a leading LNG exporter, stands to gain from streamlined export processes and expanded European demand, particularly as the U.S. solidifies its position as the world's top LNG producer. Similarly, midstream operators like Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Energy Transfer (ET) are well-positioned to capitalize on the EU's energy needs, given their extensive pipeline networks and export terminal capacity as reported by financial analysts.

Valuation metrics further underscore these opportunities. Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE), for instance, trade at significant discounts to intrinsic value-42.9% and 35.9%, respectively-while maintaining robust free cash flow margins and expanding into renewables and LNG according to valuation research. These metrics, combined with the EU's $750 billion energy procurement target, suggest that energy stocks with exposure to U.S. exports and midstream infrastructure could deliver outsized returns.

Technology Sector: European Innovators and U.S. Value Plays

The trade deal also catalyzes investment in technology, particularly in European firms with competitive advantages in industrial automation, semiconductors, and enterprise software. STMicroelectronics trades at a 26.4% discount to fair value and is set to benefit from an €500 million financing agreement with the European Investment Bank, bolstering its growth in automotive and industrial applications. SAP is highlighted for its AI-driven solutions, aligning with global infrastructure upgrades.

ASML, the Dutch chipmaking equipment giant, presents a more nuanced case. While its P/E ratio of 37.2x suggests overvaluation, its Q3 2025 financial results show strong growth and strong Q3 2025 net bookings of €5.4 billion indicate long-term growth potential. U.S. investors may also find value in domestic tech stocks like Micron Technology (MU), which trades at a forward P/E of 9x and is poised to benefit from AI-driven memory demand.

Strategic Considerations and Risks

While the trade deal reduces short-term uncertainty, challenges remain. The EU's $250 billion target may prove difficult to meet due to logistical constraints and existing supply contracts. Additionally, regulatory pressures on U.S. tech firms-such as EU digital services taxes and antitrust penalties-could temper long-term gains. Investors must also weigh geopolitical risks, including potential reversals in trade policy under shifting political leadership.

Conclusion: A Dual-Opportunity Framework

The U.S.-EU trade agreement creates a dual-opportunity framework: energy stocks with direct exposure to U.S. exports and midstream infrastructure, and European and U.S. tech firms aligned with AI, automation, and clean energy transitions. By leveraging valuation discounts and sector-specific tailwinds, investors can position portfolios to capitalize on the evolving global trade landscape.