Evaluación de las implicaciones de la desaceleración de la inflación fundamental en noviembre para la política de la Fed y los mercados de valores

The U.S. core inflation rate for November 2025, reported at 2.6% year-over-year, marked a significant deviation from expectations of a 3% rise, signaling a potential turning point in the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation. This slowdown, though tempered by a government shutdown that disrupted data collection and erased October's CPI figures, has prompted the Fed to recalibrate its policy stance. The central bank's 25-basis-point rate cut in December 2025, reducing the federal funds rate to 3.50-3.75%, reflects a delicate balancing act between inflation control and labor market support. For investors, this shift opens a window of opportunity to reassess sector allocations and capitalize on the evolving macroeconomic landscape.

Fed Policy: A Delicate Tightrope

The Fed's decision to cut rates despite core inflation remaining above its 2% target underscores the growing urgency to address a cooling labor market. With the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and October's job losses casting further shadows, policymakers have prioritized employment stability over aggressive inflation suppression. This pivot, however, is not without controversy. Three dissenting Fed members highlighted the risks of premature easing, warning that inflation could rebound if the labor market's weakness proves temporary. The central bank's projections-anticipating core inflation to moderate to 2.5% in 2026-suggest a cautious optimism, but the path to price stability remains fraught with uncertainties, including AI-driven capital spending and fiscal stimulus from consumer tax refunds as reported in the latest analysis.

Equity Market Implications: Sector Rotation in Motion

The Fed's accommodative pivot has already triggered a discernible shift in investor behavior. Defensive sectors, such as Healthcare and Utilities, have outperformed high-growth technology stocks, reflecting a flight to quality amid economic uncertainty. This trend aligns with historical patterns: rate cuts typically bolster equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to borrowing costs. For instance, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and utilities, which thrive in low-rate environments due to their stable cash flows, are now prime beneficiaries of the Fed's easing cycle.

Conversely, the technology sector-once a market darling-faces headwinds as investors reassess valuations. AI-driven names like Nvidia have experienced sharp declines, signaling a reevaluation of speculative bets in favor of more predictable earnings streams as noted in recent market analysis. This rotation is not merely tactical but structural, as global trade tensions and emerging market slowdowns amplify the need for defensive positioning according to JPMorgan research.

Strategic Opportunities: Balancing Income and Growth

Investors navigating this landscape must adopt a dual approach: leveraging rate cuts to enhance income while hedging against volatility. Fixed-income strategies, particularly core and core-plus bond portfolios, offer compelling entry points as yields adjust to the new rate environment. Short-duration bonds, with their lower interest rate risk, remain attractive, while high-yield credit sectors-supported by tightening spreads-present income opportunities according to BlackRock analysis.

In equities, a focus on U.S. large caps and international markets with strong fundamentals is prudent. Quality companies with durable competitive advantages, such as those in healthcare and consumer staples, are likely to outperform in a low-growth, low-inflation regime as suggested by Lord Abbett research. Meanwhile, alternative strategies, including market-neutral funds and tactical asset allocation, can provide diversification benefits amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties according to Wellington's outlook.

Historical Context: Lessons from Past Cycles

Historical data reinforces the importance of timing and context in rate-cut cycles. The S&P 500 has historically rallied in the year following the first rate cut of a cycle, but this outcome is contingent on the economic backdrop. In non-recessionary environments, equities tend to thrive, while recessions often see a flight to safety, with Treasuries and gold outperforming as detailed in JPMorgan's analysis. The current cycle, though not yet recessionary, shares similarities with past easing periods, where rate cuts supported growth without triggering asset bubbles.

Conclusion: Preparing for 2026

As the Fed's policy trajectory leans toward further easing-projected to reach 100 basis points by year-end 2026-investors must remain agile. The November 2025 data and subsequent rate cut signal a shift toward a more neutral monetary stance, but the path to equilibrium is likely to be uneven. A diversified portfolio, emphasizing quality equities, defensive sectors, and income-generating assets, will be critical to navigating the volatility ahead. With inflationary pressures receding and growth expectations stabilizing, the coming months will test the resilience of both markets and monetary policy.