Evaluación del impacto de los cambios de política en Asia sobre las corrientes mundiales de capital

The evolving policy landscape in Asia has become a pivotal force in reshaping global capital flows to emerging markets in 2025. As regulatory and economic reforms gain momentum, the region's risk-return profiles are diverging sharply, creating both challenges and opportunities for investors. This analysis explores how policy shifts-ranging from China's structural reforms to Southeast Asia's industrial upgrades-are redefining capital allocation dynamics and identifying undervalued sectors poised for inflows.

China's Decoupling and Structural Challenges

China's role as a capital magnet has diminished amid structural headwinds, including a struggling real estate sector, weak consumption, and overcapacity in manufacturing. According to a report by the Brookings Institution, foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio, and other investment flows to China have weakened compared to other emerging markets, reflecting a decoupling trend. This divergence is exacerbated by global events such as the U.S. tariff hikes and geopolitical tensions, which have redirected capital toward economies with more resilient growth models.

Despite these challenges, China's policy reforms-such as corporate governance upgrades and dividend incentives-have begun to attract domestic capital into equities. For instance, Chinese companies are projected to pay out record dividends in 2025, enhancing their appeal for yield-focused investors. However, the broader structural issues, including reliance on exports and underdeveloped domestic demand, suggest that China's capital inflow potential will remain constrained unless reforms accelerate.

Southeast Asia's Resilience and Reform-Driven Gains

In contrast to China's struggles, Southeast Asia has emerged as a key beneficiary of 2025 policy shifts. Vietnam, in particular, has outperformed regional peers, achieving 8.2% GDP growth in Q3 2025 and attracting $28.54 billion in FDI during the first nine months of the year. Structural reforms, such as the elimination of pre-funding requirements, have enhanced liquidity and accessibility for foreign investors.

Vietnam's reclassification from a frontier to an emerging market by FTSE Russell in 2026 further underscores its growing appeal. The country's banking sector, for example, trades at a forward P/B ratio of 1.28x, with projected 18% YoY earnings growth in 2026, making it a compelling undervalued sector. Similarly, Southeast Asia's focus on industrial upgrading and digital transformation has spurred inflows into technology and logistics, with health tech and e-commerce sectors leading IPO activity.

India's Undervalued Sectors and Reform Momentum

India's economic reforms have unlocked significant capital inflow potential, particularly in sectors like banking, energy, and infrastructure. Despite a slowdown in private equity deal values in 2025, the country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust, favorable demographics, rising domestic consumption, and policy-driven fiscal easing.

Key undervalued sectors include banking and power finance, where companies like Bank of Baroda (PE of 7x) and Power Finance Corporation (PE of 3.4x) trade at significant discounts to their historical averages. Additionally, India's systematic investment plans (SIPs) have injected retail capital into equities, further supporting valuation re-rating. The decline in interest rates in 2025 is also expected to boost PE/VC investments in infrastructure and real estate, as investors seek yield-generating opportunities.

Strategic Reallocation Opportunities

The 2025 policy shifts in Asia have created a clear bifurcation in capital flows, with Southeast Asia and India emerging as high-conviction regions for strategic reallocation. For investors, the focus should be on sectors with structural tailwinds and undervalued metrics:
- Vietnam's Banking and Manufacturing: Attractive valuations and policy-driven liquidity enhancements position these sectors for inflows according to SSI.
- India's Financial Services and Energy: Low P/E ratios and reform-driven demand make these sectors compelling long-term plays according to Whales Book.
- Southeast Asia's Health Tech and Logistics: These sectors have demonstrated resilience amid trade policy uncertainties, supported by execution-driven IPOs according to DealStreetAsia.

Conclusion

As Asian policy momentum reshapes global capital flows, investors must prioritize markets and sectors where regulatory reforms align with structural growth drivers. While China's challenges persist, Southeast Asia and India offer a more favorable risk-return profile, particularly in undervalued sectors poised for capital inflows. The coming years will likely see further divergence, with policy agility and market openness determining the winners in Asia's evolving economic landscape.