Assessing HYPE's Short-Term Vulnerability Amid Unlock Pressure and Shifting Open Interest

Hyperliquid's HYPE token has emerged as a focal point in the decentralized exchange (DEX) sector, yet its short-term trajectory remains precarious amid a critical token unlock and volatile open interest dynamics. As the market braces for the November 29, 2025, release of 9.92 million HYPE tokens-valued at $308–$351 million-investors must weigh the interplay between supply-side pressures, liquidity shifts, and technical indicators to gauge risk/reward profiles.

Unlock Pressure and Mitigation Efforts

The upcoming unlock represents 2.66% of HYPE's circulating supply and is part of a cliff vesting schedule for core contributors, with full vesting expected by 2027–2028. While such events often trigger sell pressure, Hyperliquid has deployed a $600 million buyback program through its Assistance Fund to offset potential dumping. However, the sheer magnitude of the unlock-equivalent to a 3.66% increase in circulating supply-poses a tangible risk to price stability, particularly in a market already grappling with waning institutional participation.

Open Interest Trends and Market Share

Hyperliquid's open interest, which surged to $15 billion in mid-2025, has since retreated to $29 billion-a level last seen during the April 2025 tariff-driven turmoil. This decline aligns with broader market trends, including a 22% drop in trading volume and volatility spiking to the mid-40s. Despite these headwinds, Hyperliquid retains 70–80% of the DEX market share, underscoring its structural dominance. Yet the shrinking open interest suggests reduced speculative fervor, which could amplify downside risks if the unlock coincides with a liquidity crunch.

Technical Analysis: A Tale of Contradictions

HYPE's price action in late 2025 has been marked by conflicting signals. On the bearish side, the token breached a critical $30 support level in early December, sliding to $28.35 and exposing the $24 level as the next potential floor. Analysts highlight a descending triangle pattern and weakening RSI (28.88) as indicators of bearish momentum, though the latter's oversold condition hints at potential rebounds.

Conversely, bullish narratives persist. By November, HYPE demonstrated resilience above key supports, trading near $39 amid broader market weakness. A breakout above $40 could target $43–$48, with heavy liquidity clusters near $41.50–$42.20 acting as a gravitational pull. However, a failed retest of the $49 resistance level in late November has left the token consolidating below an upward trendline, raising concerns about a potential slide to $32.

Risk/Reward Dynamics

The short-term outlook for HYPE hinges on three variables:
1. Unlock Execution: If the November 29 unlock is orderly, buybacks and reduced selling pressure could stabilize the price. A disorderly dump, however, risks accelerating the decline toward $24.
2. Open Interest Rebound: A resurgence in open interest-driven by renewed institutional or retail participation-could offset unlock-related pressures and fuel a rally toward $40.
3. Technical Breakouts: A sustained close above $35.66 would validate bullish sentiment, while a drop below $26.5 could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders.

Conclusion

HYPE's short-term vulnerability is a function of both structural and technical forces. While Hyperliquid's buyback efforts and DEX dominance provide a floor, the unlock and declining open interest create a ceiling that limits upside potential. Investors should adopt a cautious stance, using key levels like $24, $30, and $40 as decision points. For those with a higher risk tolerance, a breakout above $40 could justify a long position, but the path to $50 remains contingent on resolving near-term volatility and liquidity challenges.