Assessing Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks in Vietnam's Media and Press Freedom Landscape

Vietnam's economic ascent has long been fueled by aggressive reforms to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), including streamlined regulatory frameworks and strategic alignment with global trade agreements. However, beneath the surface of these pro-business policies lies a complex interplay of geopolitical risks and restrictive media regulations that could undermine investor confidence. As the country navigates its dual role as a manufacturing hub and a state with one of Asia's most tightly controlled media environments, foreign investors must grapple with the implications of press freedom restrictions and corporate governance challenges.

Regulatory Reforms and the Illusion of Transparency

Vietnam's 2024-2025 regulatory overhaul, particularly Decree 19/2025/ND-CP, has introduced a fast-track investment procedure that reduces project approval timelines from 6-12 months to just 15 days. This shift, coupled with reduced pre-approvals and post-approval oversight, signals a commitment to improving the business climate. Yet, these reforms coexist with a media landscape where independent journalism is stifled. The 2016 and 2018 Law on the Press mandates that media serve as a "mouthpiece" for the Communist Party, criminalizing content that challenges state narratives or foreign policy stances, such as disputes in the South China Sea.

The disconnect between economic liberalization and political repression creates a paradox for investors. While regulatory efficiency improves, the lack of press freedom limits transparency, making it difficult to assess risks related to corruption, labor practices, or environmental compliance. As a 2025 study notes, countries with restricted press freedom face higher stock price crash risks due to weaker corporate governance and overvaluation. For Vietnam, this means foreign investors may lack reliable information to evaluate projects, particularly in sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Geopolitical Risks and the Cost of Repression

Vietnam's geopolitical risk profile is exacerbated by its domestic crackdown on dissent. Article 331 of the Penal Code, which criminalizes "abusing democratic freedoms," has been used to prosecute over 140 individuals since 2018, including journalists like Trương Huy San and activists like Phạm Đoan Trang. These actions, while framed as necessary for stability, contribute to a higher geopolitical risk (GPR) index, which academic research links to long-term declines in FDI inflows.

The government's use of mental health institutions to detain critics and its suppression of independent reporting further erode trust. A 2025 Human Rights Watch report highlights that such measures "carry a heavy price for Vietnam's economic credibility," as foreign firms increasingly prioritize ethical considerations alongside profitability. For instance, the imprisonment of blogger Dao Ba Cuong in 2023-following protests over his son's death in police custody-drew international condemnation and raised questions about Vietnam's commitment to due process.

Corporate Governance Gaps and Enforcement Challenges

While Vietnam has adopted legal frameworks like the 2020 Law on Enterprises and the 2019 Securities Law to align with international standards, enforcement remains inconsistent. State-owned enterprises often lack board independence, and minority shareholder protections are weak. A 2025 study on corporate governance in emerging markets found that Vietnam's legal reforms have not translated into robust practices, with SOEs and private firms alike struggling with transparency and accountability.

The Phuc Son Group corruption scandal, which exposed systemic weaknesses in internal controls, exemplifies these risks. For foreign investors, such cases underscore the challenges of navigating a legal system where judicial independence is limited and regulatory interpretations vary. Additionally, foreign ownership restrictions in sectors like banking and telecommunications complicate long-term strategies.

Case Studies: When Press Freedom Meets Investment

Recent cases illustrate the tangible impact of these risks. In 2024, a joint venture between a European tech firm and a Vietnamese SOE faced delays after local authorities cited "national security" concerns to block data-sharing agreements-a move critics linked to broader censorship efforts. Similarly, a U.S.-based manufacturer withdrew from a high-tech project in Ho Chi Minh City after local journalists were arrested for reporting on labor conditions at the facility.

These examples highlight how press freedom restrictions can directly interfere with operational decisions. When independent reporting is suppressed, foreign firms lose a critical tool for monitoring compliance and reputational risks. As one analyst notes, "Vietnam's investment climate is a double-edged sword: while reforms attract capital, the lack of transparency and governance discipline creates hidden costs."

Conclusion: Balancing Opportunity and Risk

Vietnam's economic reforms have undeniably enhanced its appeal as an FDI destination, with inflows reaching $21.52 billion in the first half of 2025. However, the interplay of geopolitical risks, press freedom restrictions, and corporate governance gaps creates a volatile environment. Foreign investors must weigh the benefits of streamlined regulations against the costs of operating in a system where dissent is criminalized and enforcement is inconsistent.

For now, Vietnam remains a paradox: a country that opens its doors to global capital while closing them to free expression. As the government continues to prioritize economic growth over democratic norms, investors must adopt strategies that mitigate exposure to these risks-whether through diversified portfolios, enhanced due diligence, or advocacy for policy reforms.