ASML Surges 6.1% as TSMC's Capital Spending Ignites $500B Market Cap Milestone

Summary
• ASML shares hit an intraday high of $1,358.00, breaching its 52-week peak of $1,358.00
• TSMC's $52B–$56B 2026 capex plan sparks a 6.09% rally in ASML's stock
• European semiconductor sector surges, with AMAT leading at 7.98%
• ASML's market cap crosses $515B, cementing its dominance in chip equipment

ASML's record-breaking rally is fueled by TSMC's aggressive capital expenditure plans, which signal a seismic shift in AI-driven chip demand. The Dutch manufacturer's stock has surged past its 52-week high, reflecting heightened confidence in its role as a key beneficiary of the AI boom. With TSMC's capex now projected at $52B–$56B for 2026—$9B–$14B above prior estimates—ASML's equipment sales outlook for 2027 and beyond is rapidly strengthening.

TSMC's Capex Surge Fuels ASML's Record Rally
ASML's 6.09% intraday gain is directly tied to TSMC's announcement of a $52B–$56B capital expenditure plan for 2026, a 21% increase from previous guidance. This surge in spending by the world's largest chip manufacturer for advanced AI and HPC chips creates immediate demand for ASML's EUV lithography systems. Analysts highlight that TSMC's accelerated factory-building process—driven by AI memory bottlenecks and NVIDIA's demand—positions ASML to capture a significant portion of the $156B AI chip equipment market by 2027. The move also validates Citi's recent upgrade of ASML's 2027 revenue forecasts, as the company's 24% January rally reflects anticipation of multi-year growth from AI-driven semiconductor expansion.

Semiconductor Equipment Sector Rides AI-Driven Momentum
The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Applied Materials (AMAT) surging 7.98% as a sector leader. This outperformance reflects broader optimism about AI-driven demand for advanced packaging and deposition tools. ASML's 6.1% gain aligns with the sector's 5.4% average move, as TSMC's capex announcement has triggered a chain reaction across the supply chain—from wafer manufacturers to packaging firms. The sector's K-line pattern of a short-term bullish trend and MACD crossover above the signal line (55.26 vs. 40.43) reinforce the technical case for continued momentum.

Bullish Technicals and High-Leverage Options for ASML
• MACD: 55.26 (above signal line 40.43) – bullish momentum
• RSI: 78.78 (overbought) – suggests potential pullback
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $1,340.74 (above upper band $1,331.77) – overextended
• 200D MA: $866.87 (far below current price) – strong trend
• Support/Resistance: 30D at $1,068.59–$1,073.91 (far below)

ASML's technicals paint a picture of aggressive bullish momentum, with the RSI at overbought levels and the MACD histogram expanding. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $1,358.00 and the upper Bollinger Band at $1,331.77. While the overbought RSI suggests a short-term consolidation, the long-term trend remains intact. The sector's 7.98% gain in AMAT underscores the strength of AI-driven demand.

Top Options Picks:
• ASML20260227C1350
- Strike: $1,350 | Exp: 2026-02-27 | IV: 0.14% | Leverage: 268,562% | Delta: 0.0206 | Theta: -0.0230 | Gamma: 0.0754 | Turnover: 0
- IV: Low volatility, Leverage: Extreme (but impractical), Delta: Near-zero (out-of-the-money), Theta: Moderate decay, Gamma: High sensitivity
- This contract offers extreme leverage but is nearly at-the-money with negligible delta. Its high gamma suggests potential for rapid value changes if ASML breaks $1,350, though low turnover indicates poor liquidity.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider the ASML20260227C1350 if the stock breaks $1,350, but liquidity constraints make this a high-risk trade. A safer approach is to monitor the 52-week high and consider a 200D MA crossover as a long-term buy signal.

Backtest ASML Holding Stock Performance
The backtest of ASML's performance after a 6% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 5.37% on January 14, 2026, which is within the 30-day win rate of 53.01%, the overall average return over 30 days is only 2.43%. This suggests that while there is some potential for gains, they are not consistently realized, and the stock can experience periods of underperformance.

ASML's AI-Driven Rally Gains Critical Momentum—Act Now
ASML's 6.1% surge reflects a pivotal shift in the AI semiconductor landscape, with TSMC's capex plans validating its role as the primary beneficiary of the AI boom. While the RSI's overbought level suggests a potential pullback, the long-term trend remains intact, supported by a 200D MA far below current prices. Sector leader AMAT's 7.98% gain reinforces the strength of AI-driven demand. Investors should watch for a breakout above $1,358.00 (52-week high) to confirm the continuation of this multi-year trend. For those seeking leverage, the ASML20260227C1350 offers extreme potential but requires careful liquidity management. Act now: Position for a potential $1,350–$1,400 range if the 52-week high is breached.