ASML Shares Drop 3.93% as Technical Indicators Signal Strong Bearish Momentum

ASML Holding (ASML) shares declined 3.93% to close at $1002.30 on 2025-10-07, marking a sharp pullback from recent highs around $1050. This analysis examines the technical posture using the required frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The recent session formed a long bearish candle, decisively breaking below the immediate support near $1030-$1032 (prior consolidation zone). This suggests strong selling pressure. Key resistance now rests at the $1043-$1045 level (recent swing high and psychological barrier), with stronger resistance near $1050. Support is initially seen around the psychological $1000 level, followed by the more significant swing low near $960-$970 formed in late September.
Moving Average Theory
The current price ($1002.3) sits below all key moving averages – the 50-day (~$850), 100-day (~$790), and 200-day (~$745). While the long-term 200-day MA slope remains positive, the price is now significantly (~22%) above it, suggesting potential mean-reversion risk. The recent break below the short-term moving averages, particularly the 50-day MA which capped rallies earlier in October, confirms near-term bearish momentum. The 50-day MA crossing below the 100-day MA several weeks ago provided a key medium-term bearish signal that remains valid.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) likely resides below its signal line and in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum following the recent sharp decline. This downtrend shows no sign of abating. The KDJ indicator (common settings like 9,3,3) appears to be crossing down from the overbought territory (>80) above 70 on 2025-10-06. Both the %K and %D lines are now pointing down, suggesting momentum is shifting bearish. The KDJ does not yet indicate oversold conditions, potentially allowing for further downside.
Bollinger Bands
Price has decisively broken below the middle Bollinger Band (20-SMA ~ $915), indicating a shift towards bearish territory. The recent period saw band contraction preceding the breakdown, a typical setup for increased directional volatility. Volatility is expanding to the downside as the price pushes towards the lower band (~$800). The position near the lower band doesn't necessarily indicate an oversold bounce is imminent, but rather reflects strong downside momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
The sharp 3.93% decline on 2025-10-07 occurred on elevated volume (1,665,172 shares), exceeding the volume from the preceding up day. This high-volume sell-off validates the bearish price action and signals strong conviction among sellers. The earlier rally attempt on 2025-10-02 (+2.68%) also saw notably high volume, suggesting some distribution may have occurred near the $1040 peak. Overall, volume patterns support the current bearish move.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating the 14-day RSI shows it has fallen sharply, likely residing near or just below 40 based on recent data. This move below the neutral 50 level reinforces the shift to negative momentum. While the RSI is not yet oversold (<30), it has significant room to decline further before signaling potential exhaustion. The RSI trend is decisively downward.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant upswing from the late April 2025 low (approx. $600) to the October 2025 high ($1059) provides key levels. The 23.6% retracement sits near $960, which aligns perfectly with the late-September swing low and provided initial support. The 38.2% retracement level is around $900, and the 50% retracement is near $825. These levels, particularly $900 and $825, represent critical potential support zones should the current downtrend extend.
Confluence Points & Divergences
Significant confluence exists around the $950-$970 support zone. This area marks the late-September swing low ($951-$962) and aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($960), attracting buyers previously. Its breach would signal increased bearish strength. The breakdown below key short-term moving averages and $1030 support, confirmed by high volume and bearish MACD/KDJ signals, shows strong consensus for near-term downside momentum. No major bullish divergences are apparent on key oscillators like RSI or MACD against the recent lower price low. Earlier minor RSI positive divergences during the late August pullback resolved upwards but were negated by the October high breakdown.
Conclusion
The technical outlook for ASML Holding has deteriorated significantly. The high-volume breakdown below $1030 support, confirmed by bearish crossovers on momentum oscillators and a break below key moving averages, establishes a near-term downtrend. While support is evident near $1000 and more strongly around the $950-$970 confluence zone (prior low, 23.6% Fib), the high selling volume and lack of oversold conditions on oscillators suggest downside pressure may persist in the short term. A break below $960 would likely target the next significant Fib support near $900. Recovering above $1045 would be necessary to challenge the bearish near-term structure. Investors should monitor volume patterns and oversold signals around key Fibonacci levels for potential stabilization points.