ASML Shares Climb But Trading Volume Plummets 33% to 100th Rank Amid 2026 Growth Concerns

ASML’s stock rose 0.73% on August 18, with a trading volume of $0.81 billion, down 33.33% from the previous day, ranking 100th in market activity. The share price has gained 7.1% year-to-date, lagging the 13.7% growth of the broader tech sector. Recent underperformance stems from management’s revised 2026 growth outlook, which has spooked investors despite strong Q2 results.

The company reported Q2 2025 net sales of €7.69 billion, up 23.2% year-over-year, and EPS of €5.90, a 47.1% increase. However, shares fell 9.6% post-earnings due to weaker third-quarter guidance and uncertainty about 2026. Management cited customer hesitation and U.S.-China tariff discussions as factors delaying orders and revenue recognition. Third-quarter revenue guidance of €7.4–7.9 billion fell short of the $9.81 billion Zacks estimate, while gross margin is expected to decline to 50–52% from 53.7% in Q2.

ASML’s forward P/E ratio of 26.14 is lower than the tech sector average of 28.19 and peers like Broadcom (38.58) and AMD (24.47). However, the valuation discount reflects concerns over near-term growth continuity. Analysts caution that the stock’s undervaluation may signal real risks rather than a buying opportunity, given macroeconomic headwinds and management’s admission of potential “no growth” in 2026.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to now delivered a 1-day return of 0.98%, with a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. This indicates moderate short-term momentum but highlights volatility and timing risks.