ASML's Ambitious Revenue Projections: A Path to 2030

ASML, a leading supplier to the semiconductor industry, has recently projected its annual revenue to grow to between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030. This significant growth is driven by the company's strategic focus on EUV technology and its versatile holistic lithography portfolio, which positions ASML to contribute to and leverage the artificial intelligence (AI) opportunity. The company's strong industry partnerships and commitment to ESG sustainability further enhance its prospects.

ASML's revenue growth projections are supported by the promising long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry. Global semiconductor sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with an annual growth rate of approximately 9% in the period 2025-2030. This growth is fueled by megatrends in the electronics industry and the emergence of AI, creating a strong demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing solutions.

ASML's ability to scale EUV technology plays a crucial role in its revenue projections. EUV, a critical enabler for advanced lithography, allows for more precise and efficient pattern transfer, enabling the production of smaller, more powerful chips. ASML's dominance in EUV technology, with a market share of over 80%, positions it well to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. As customers adopt EUV for more layers and nodes, ASML's revenue is expected to grow, driven by both increased system sales and higher service and upgrade demand.



ASML's Installed Base Management (IBM) strategy also contributes to its overall revenue growth projections. IBM involves providing services and field upgrades to existing customers, generating recurring revenue streams. According to ASML's 2024 Investor Day presentation, IBM sales contributed €1.482 billion in Q2 2024 and €1.541 billion in Q3 2024, representing a 10.2% and 10.6% increase, respectively. This growth is driven by the increasing demand for maintenance, upgrades, and support services for ASML's installed base of systems. As ASML's installed base grows, so does the potential for IBM revenue, contributing to the company's overall revenue growth projections.

In conclusion, ASML's ambitious revenue projections for 2030 are supported by the company's strategic focus on EUV technology, its versatile holistic lithography portfolio, and its strong industry partnerships. The promising long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry, driven by AI and other megatrends, further enhances ASML's growth prospects. Investors should consider ASML's growth potential and its strategic positioning in the semiconductor market when evaluating investment opportunities.