ASML Jumps 6.56% to 867.3 on Strong Volume and Technical Momentum

ASML Holding surged 6.56% to close at 867.3 on 2025-09-15, marking its third consecutive gain with a 9.35% advance over this period. This robust upward movement warrants detailed technical assessment using the framework below.
Candlestick Theory
The three consecutive bullish candles culminating in a strong white candle (6.56% gain) on elevated volume indicate sustained buying pressure. This pattern emerges near the 833.92 support level tested on 2025-09-15, which now serves as immediate support. Resistance is evident at 868.72 (the session high). A confirmed breach above 868.72 would signal bullish continuation, while failure could see retracement toward 800–810 consolidation support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (currently ~745) and 100-day MA (~720) slope upward beneath the price, confirming the intermediate trend’s bullish bias. The 200-day MA (~690) maintains a positive long-term trajectory. With the price firmly above all three averages and the 50-day crossing above the 200-day (Golden Cross) in Q2 2025, the multi-timeframe alignment supports continued upward momentum. The 50-day MA now acts as dynamic support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a strengthening bullish crossover as the histogram expands positively, confirming accelerating upward momentum. KDJ’s %K (86) and %D (78) are in overbought territory but exhibit no bearish divergence, suggesting trend persistence despite stretched conditions. However, narrowing distance between %K and %D may foreshadow short-term consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
The price pierced the upper band (867.3 vs. upper band ~845) on 2025-09-15, indicating an overextended move. Band width expanded sharply during the rally, reflecting rising volatility. A mean-reversion pullback toward the 20-period SMA (currently ~815) is plausible, though consecutive closes above the upper band would signal exceptional strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 164% to 2.69M shares on 2025-09-15 versus the prior session, validating the breakout. The three-day rally showed ascending volume, confirming buyer conviction. This diverges from the low-volume pullback in early September, reinforcing the sustainability of the current advance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 72 has entered overbought territory (>70). Historically, ASML’s RSI can remain elevated in strong trends (e.g., peaked at 78 in April 2025 before consolidation). While not an immediate reversal signal, it warrants monitoring for bearish divergence or a break below 70 to flag exhaustion.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the April–July 2025 decline (873.65 high to 605.55 low), key retracement supports are 723.2 (38.2%) and 784.6 (61.8%). The current price has cleared the 784.6 resistance-turned-support, aligning with the 2025-09-10 low of 791.02. The rally now approaches the 78.6% retracement (832.5) — surpassed intraday — with the 873.65 high as the next psychological resistance.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence exists between the Fibonacci 78.6% level (832.5), 50-day MA support (745), and volume-backed breakout, reinforcing bullish bias. Divergence is observed between RSI (overbought) and Bollinger Bands (price exceeding upper band) versus MACD’s continued strength, suggesting near-term consolidation risk. However, unanimous momentum confirmation from MACD, volume, and moving averages overrides reversal concerns unless support at 833.92 fails.