Arweave/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-11-01)

• Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) rose sharply to a new 24-hour high, reaching $0.000354.
• Momentum indicators suggest a strong rally, with RSI nearing overbought levels and MACD showing bullish divergence.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the day, with high trading volume and a sharp increase in notional turnover.
• A bullish morning star pattern appears to have formed near the 24-hour low, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
• Key resistance at $0.000354 may hold if bulls manage to maintain price above the 20-period moving average.

The 24-hour session for Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) started at $0.000328 and closed at $0.000382, with a high of $0.000382 and a low of $0.000316. The pair experienced a sharp 17.6% rally in the final 6 hours, culminating in a 24-hour high of $0.000382. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 11,039.98 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.49 (assuming a Bitcoin price of $69,000).

On the 15-minute chart, price broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. A morning star candlestick pattern emerged near the 24-hour low, indicating a potential reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend. Key support levels appear to be clustering around $0.000324–$0.000326, with resistance forming at $0.000340–$0.000354. The RSI reached a level near 70, signaling overbought conditions, while the MACD showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward bias.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the rally, suggesting a period of heightened volatility. Price currently rests near the upper band, indicating that the recent surge may be exhausting. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key low to the 24-hour high show that price has cleared the 61.8% level and is approaching the 78.6% extension. This suggests that if the momentum holds, the next target could be a new 30-day high. However, a retest of the 50-period moving average at around $0.000356 may be needed before a more sustained move higher can be confirmed.

Volume increased notably during the final 6 hours of the session, with a sharp spike in notional turnover aligning with the price breakout. This volume confirmation supports the strength of the rally. However, a divergence between rising price and declining volume in the last hour suggests a possible near-term pause in the rally. Investors should watch for a pullback to the 20-period moving average as a potential buying opportunity, provided volume remains supportive.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical conditions observed in this 24-hour ARBTC chart align with a momentum-based strategy that could be backtested using similar inputs. One approach would be to trigger a long signal when price closes above the 20-period moving average and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. This strategy would aim to capture sharp breakouts like the one seen today.

However, as noted in the provided text, a challenge arises when attempting to apply this logic to an ETF like HOLD.P. A similar backtest would require access to reliable historical data. If this data is unavailable or incomplete, alternative steps must be taken—such as verifying the correct ticker symbol, switching to a comparable asset, or manually supplying raw OHLCV data.

For a comparable backtest, one could use SPY or a liquid cryptocurrency pair with consistent data availability. Once data is confirmed, the RSI crossover and Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to refine entry and exit rules. This approach could be used to simulate the current ARBTC momentum breakout and assess its historical success rate.