Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview

• Price rose from $0.0000591 to $0.000061 at 12:00 ET, closing above key resistance.
• Momentum strengthened midday with a bullish breakout and confirmed by rising volume.
• Volatility remained stable, but late-night consolidation suggests near-term indecision.
• RSI indicates overbought conditions, while MACD shows positive divergence.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at $0.0000591 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.000061, and closed at $0.000061 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume was 2,451.52, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 130.11 ARBTC.

Structure & Formations

ARBTC formed a bullish continuation pattern around $0.0000595, where price consolidated before breaking out after 19:00 ET. A 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart (at $0.0000599) acted as dynamic support. Key resistance levels formed near $0.000061, where price briefly pulled back before closing the day. A bullish harami pattern at 00:00–00:15 ET signaled possible consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart ran at $0.0000597, crossing above the 50-period EMA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period daily MA (not shown) is near $0.0000593, suggesting the 15-minute chart is leading higher. MACD turned positive after 19:00 ET, confirming momentum, while RSI hit 64–68 late in the session, indicating overbought conditions. Price appears to be overextended, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation ahead.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remained moderate throughout the day, with price staying within the ±1σ range of the Bollinger Bands. A slight expansion occurred after 19:00 ET, aligning with the breakout. By 03:00–05:00 ET, the bands began to contract, suggesting a potential reversal setup. The close at $0.000061 sits near the upper band, hinting at a potential overbought correction.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked after 19:00 ET, with a 555.04-volume candle confirming the breakout. Turnover also rose sharply during this period, aligning with price movement. However, after 03:00 ET, volume declined despite price holding near highs, indicating possible divergence. This could signal a lack of follow-through from buyers, warranting caution in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from $0.0000584 to $0.0000612 placed key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($0.0000597) and 61.8% ($0.0000603). Price tested both levels before closing near $0.000061, suggesting a strong short-term bias toward higher highs. Daily-level retracements align with 61.8% at $0.0000614, hinting at a potential target if the breakout is confirmed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could exploit the breakout above $0.0000595, supported by a 20/50 EMA crossover and bullish MACD divergence. A long entry at $0.0000596 with a stop just below $0.0000592 and a target at $0.0000603 aligns with Fibonacci and Bollinger Band targets. If RSI exceeds 70 or volume declines without a new high, a partial exit or tightening of stops could mitigate risk. This setup reflects a high-probability continuation pattern.