Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) Market Overview for 2025-10-30

• Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) experienced a bearish close on 2025-10-30, dropping from 3.48e-05 to 3.39e-05.
• A 1.81% decline in price was accompanied by high volatility and mixed momentum.
• Volume surged to 8,186.49 during key breakouts but failed to confirm bullish strength.
• A bearish breakout below 3.48e-05 and RSI near oversold levels suggest potential for further downward correction.
• The 24-hour turnover reached $336,011.98, with no strong confirmation of a trend reversal.

Opening and Daily Price Action

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-10-29, Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 3.48e-05, reaching a high of 3.63e-05 before settling at a 24-hour low of 3.29e-05. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30, the price closed at 3.29e-05. Total volume traded during the period was 8,186.49 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $336,011.98. This significant volume and price divergence suggest increased bearish pressure amid uncertainty in the broader market.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a key bearish breakdown below the 3.48e-05 level, signaling a potential shift in momentum. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:45 ET-1, followed by a doji near 22:45 ET-1, which hinted at indecision. A critical support level emerged at 3.46e-05, which was tested multiple times during the session and failed to hold.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA remained above 3.52e-05, suggesting short-term bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA is positioned at 3.56e-05, above the 100-period MA at 3.53e-05 and the 200-period MA at 3.51e-05. This indicates a potential long-term bullish setup, though it is being challenged in the short term.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line remained in negative territory for most of the session, with a bearish crossover into the signal line. RSI dipped to 28 by the final hours, reaching oversold conditions, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the price failed to close above key resistance at 3.52e-05, indicating that the oversold rebound may not be strong enough to reverse the trend.

Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction early in the session, followed by a significant expansion as volatility increased. Price spent most of the day below the 20-period lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The narrowing band period occurred between 19:30 ET-1 and 21:00 ET-1, which may have signaled a low-volatility intermission before the subsequent breakdown.

Volume and Turnover Confirmation

Volume and turnover spiked around 18:45 ET-1 and 20:15 ET-1 during significant price declines. The largest single 15-minute turnover occurred at 15:30 ET, where price dropped from 3.31e-05 to 3.32e-05 on heavy volume of 1,873.83 units. Despite the high volume, price failed to confirm a strong bounce or retest of key resistance, suggesting a lack of conviction among bullish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the most recent 15-minute swing high (3.63e-05) and low (3.29e-05), the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 3.48e-05, which acted as a key resistance point. The 61.8% level is at 3.43e-05, where the price found some support near the session’s end. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is at 3.49e-05, which could act as a potential pivot if the price retraces from current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy described would require the correct ticker symbol to pull RSI data and execute a backtest from January 1, 2022, to the current date. Given the volatility and oversold RSI reading observed today, a strategy based on RSI oversold-to-overbought transitions could be potentially profitable if the ticker symbol and corresponding data are properly validated. Once the correct ARBTC pair is confirmed, the backtest could provide insight into the pair's responsiveness to such signals in different market environments.