Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Surges 16.9% on Regulatory Wins and Groundbreaking Obesity Trial Data—What’s Fueling This Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) rockets 16.93% intraday to $74.695, hitting its 52-week high of $76.76
• Health Canada approves REDEMPLO for FCS, the first siRNA therapy for the rare disease
• ARO-INHBE obesity trial shows doubling of weight loss vs. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound
• Options frenzy: 1,281 contracts traded on the $80 call ahead of Friday’s expiry

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is scripting a blockbuster narrative as its stock surges on twin catalysts: regulatory validation for its siRNA therapy REDEMPLO and groundbreaking obesity trial data. With a 16.9% intraday jump, the stock has erased its 2026 losses and now trades near its 52-week high. The move is driven by Health Canada’s approval of REDEMPLO for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) and interim results showing ARO-INHBE’s ability to double weight loss compared to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Traders are scrambling to position ahead of Friday’s expiry, with the $80 call option seeing 1,281 contracts traded.

Regulatory Green Light and Obesity Breakthrough Ignite Biotech Rally
Arrowhead’s 16.9% surge is fueled by two seismic events: Health Canada’s approval of REDEMPLO (plozasiran) for FCS and interim data showing ARO-INHBE’s obesity therapy doubles weight loss compared to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. The FCS approval marks REDEMPLO as the first siRNA therapy for the rare disease, expanding Arrowhead’s commercial footprint. Meanwhile, ARO-INHBE’s 9.4% weight loss in combination with tirzepatide—versus 4.8% on tirzepatide alone—positions it as a disruptive force in the $100B obesity market. These catalysts validate Arrowhead’s TRiM platform and signal a shift in RNAi therapeutics from experimental to commercial reality.

Options Playbook: Leverage 260% Gamma and 171% Call Volatility for Biotech Breakout
• 200-day average: $28.40 (far below current price)
• RSI: 34.48 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 3.65 (bullish divergence from signal line 5.01)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $74.695 vs. upper band $72.71 (overbought)
• Kline pattern: Short-term bearish trend + bearish engulfing pattern vs. long-term bullish bias

Arrowhead’s technicals scream short-term volatility but long-term conviction. The stock is trading above its 200-day average by 163% and RSI at 34.48 suggests oversold conditions. The MACD histogram (-1.36) indicates bearish momentum, but the long-term Kline pattern remains bullish. For traders, the $70–$75 range is critical: a break above $76.76 (52-week high) could trigger a retest of $80, while a drop below $70.64 (intraday low) would validate the bearish engulfing pattern.

Top Options Plays:
• ARWR20260116C72.5 (Call):
- Strike: $72.50 | Expiry: 2026-01-16 | IV: 87.91% | Leverage: 12.71% | Delta: 0.6206 | Theta: -0.3521 | Gamma: 0.0332 | Turnover: 91,418
- IV (87.91%): High implied volatility suggests strong market expectations
- Leverage (12.71%): Amplifies gains if price moves above $72.50
- Gamma (0.0332): Sensitive to price swings, ideal for volatile biotech plays
- Theta (-0.3521): High time decay, suitable for short-term bets
- Turnover (91,418): Liquid contract for easy entry/exit
- Payoff at 5% upside (78.43): $5.93/share gain (85% return on strike price)
- Why it stands out: Combines high gamma and leverage for explosive gains if the stock breaks above $72.50.

• ARWR20260116C75 (Call):
- Strike: $75.00 | Expiry: 2026-01-16 | IV: 71.32% | Leverage: 20.00% | Delta: 0.5289 | Theta: -0.3041 | Gamma: 0.0428 | Turnover: 63,954
- IV (71.32%): Moderate volatility, balancing risk and reward
- Leverage (20.00%): High amplification for a 5% price move
- Gamma (0.0428): Strong sensitivity to price changes
- Theta (-0.3041): Aggressive time decay, ideal for Friday expiry
- Turnover (63,954): Sufficient liquidity for position sizing
- Payoff at 5% upside (78.43): $3.43/share gain (46% return on strike price)
- Why it stands out: Offers a safer entry point with 20% leverage and high gamma for a controlled breakout.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls should target ARWR20260116C72.5 for a 5% upside scenario, while conservative traders may use ARWR20260116C75 as a hedge. Watch for a $76.76 breakout to confirm the bullish case.

Backtest Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Stock Performance
The backtest of ARWR's performance after an intraday surge of at least 17% from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 48.62%, the 10-day win rate is 50.74%, and the 30-day win rate is 53.29%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 8.46%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that ARWR can deliver decent gains even after a significant intraday surge.

Arrowhead’s Biotech Breakout: Ride the RNAi Revolution or Cash in on the Volatility?
Arrowhead’s 16.9% surge is a testament to the power of RNAi therapeutics and obesity innovation. With REDEMPLO’s FCS approval and ARO-INHBE’s weight loss dominance, the stock is poised to test its 52-week high of $76.76. Technicals suggest a volatile near-term path, but the long-term Kline pattern remains bullish. Traders should monitor the $70–$75 range: a break above $76.76 could trigger a retest of $80, while a drop below $70.64 would validate the bearish engulfing pattern. For now, the ARWR20260116C72.5 and ARWR20260116C75 options offer the best leverage to capitalize on this biotech breakout. As the sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rises 0.76%, Arrowhead’s RNAi revolution is rewriting the rules of gene therapy.