ARKUSDT Market Overview for 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price tested key support and failed to hold, with bearish momentum increasing in early ET hours.
• Volatility remains contained, but volume surged during key price dips.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at the top of the range, indicating possible correction.

ARKUSDT opened at $0.3112 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.3083 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.3127 and a low of $0.3058. Total volume was 249,603.0, with turnover amounting to $75.87 (assuming USD-based notional value). The price action over the past 24 hours shows a volatile but range-bound pattern, with multiple attempts to break higher but met with selling pressure at key levels.

Structure & Formations

The price has been trading between two key levels: a resistance cluster near $0.3120 and a strong support zone around $0.3075–0.3080. Notably, a Bearish Engulfing pattern formed at the high of the day at $0.3127, followed by a Bearish Harami as the price consolidated below the prior high. These patterns suggest a potential bearish shift in sentiment. A Doji formed at $0.3083 in the early morning, indicating indecision and potential reversal. Traders should watch for a break below $0.3075 for confirmation of a deeper correction.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is above the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bearish bias. The MACD is negative and contracting, indicating waning bullish momentum. The RSI has entered overbought territory at the top of the range and is now in a neutral zone, suggesting a potential pullback could be in order. If the price breaks below the 50-period MA and the RSI falls below 50, bearish continuation may follow.

Bollinger Bands and Volume Analysis

Volatility appears to be expanding, with price bouncing off the upper and lower Bollinger bands multiple times during the day. The bands are widening, indicating increased uncertainty. The volume profile shows a surge in buying activity at key support levels, especially around $0.3080–0.3075, suggesting accumulation. However, divergence between price and volume at these levels raises questions about the strength of the support. If price declines further without a corresponding increase in volume, this could indicate a weak bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of $0.3127 to the low of $0.3058 show critical retracement levels. The 61.8% retracement level is around $0.3084, which aligns with the current price zone. This level could act as a pivot for a potential bounce or further breakdown. A break below $0.3075 would align with the 38.2% level, suggesting a bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest was conducted using a Bullish Engulfing candle strategy, entering on every Bullish Engulfing pattern and exiting after exactly one trading day. The backtest ran from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10 using daily close prices. This strategy is aligned with some of the candlestick patterns observed in the 15-minute chart, such as the Bullish Engulfing and Harami formations. While the price failed to hold key levels today, the strategy’s performance can help gauge the effectiveness of such patterns in this market context. A detailed analysis of returns, drawdowns, and equity curves is available in the interactive backtest module.