ARKUSDT Market Overview – 2025-10-23

• Ark/Tether traded in a descending channel, with a 24-hour low of 0.304 and close at 0.3195
• Volume spiked during the 21:15–21:30 ET selloff but failed to confirm a strong bearish breakout
• RSI approached oversold levels near 30, suggesting a potential short-term rebound
• Price found support at key Fibonacci retracement levels around 0.3145–0.315
• MACD showed weakening bearish momentum, with the histogram narrowing and zero line proximity

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.3203 on October 22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3195 on October 23 at the same hour. The 24-hour range was 0.3216 (high) to 0.3040 (low). Total volume for the period was 682,929.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $218,905.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish trend from 18:00 to 21:15 ET, with price breaking below a key support level near 0.3145–0.315. This area acted as a short-term floor after a sharp selloff from 0.3195 to 0.308. A bearish continuation pattern was evident, with no strong reversal cues such as dojis or bullish engulfing patterns during the decline. However, price action from 02:00 to 06:30 ET showed a consolidation phase that included a bullish flag pattern, which failed to break resistance at 0.3208.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. The 20SMA was at 0.316, while the 50SMA was at 0.3172. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 100DMA crossed over near 0.3165 and 0.3170, respectively, indicating a potential shift in momentum but not yet a full reversal.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence with the price for most of the session, especially between 18:00 and 21:30 ET. The histogram was negative, and the zero line approached closely during the consolidation phase. RSI bottomed at 29.3 during the 21:15–21:30 ET selloff, signaling an oversold condition. However, the RSI failed to close above 40 in the following hours, indicating limited buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential of a bearish continuation strategy, a backtest could be constructed based on the Bearish Engulfing pattern observed in prior sessions, using the recent ARKUSDT data as a sample. Entries would trigger on the confirmation of a Bearish Engulfing candle, with exits defined by the first Bullish Engulfing or a 5-day moving average crossover. Stop-loss and take-profit levels could be set based on key Fibonacci levels or Bollinger Band thresholds identified in this report. Given ARKUSDT’s volatility, a 3% stop-loss and 5% take-profit could be tested, with positions held for a maximum of five days. This setup would help quantify the strategy's viability and refine risk-adjusted returns.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction during the 02:00–05:00 ET consolidation phase, signaling potential breakout or breakdown conditions. Price remained within the lower band for most of the 18:00–21:15 ET decline, with volatility expanding as the selloff accelerated. During the rebound phase from 06:00 to 09:00 ET, price moved above the lower band but failed to reach the middle band, indicating limited conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 151,675 units during the 21:15–21:30 ET session, coinciding with the 0.308 low. This high volume failed to result in a meaningful price rebound, creating a divergence that suggests weak demand. Conversely, the 06:30–06:45 ET session saw a 13,158-unit volume spike, which confirmed a short-term breakout above 0.3169. Notional turnover for the 24-hour period totaled approximately $218,905, with the largest single-candle turnover at $8,355 during the 21:15–21:30 ET selloff.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels were defined by the 0.3216 high and 0.3040 low. The 61.8% level at 0.3115 and 38.2% level at 0.3145 were tested and rejected, with price finding a temporary floor at the 38.2% level. A bounce back to the 50% retracement at 0.3128 failed, with volume confirmation only at the 38.2% level. This suggests that the 0.3145–0.3155 range is a critical support cluster for the next 24 hours.

Looking ahead, Ark/Tether appears poised to test the 0.3145–0.315 support cluster again, with potential for a rebound if buying pressure resumes. However, the failure to break above 0.3208 on limited volume raises concerns about the sustainability of any short-term bounce. Investors should remain cautious of further downside, particularly if volume remains low and RSI fails to confirm a bullish reversal.