ARKMUSDT Market Overview: Arkham/Tether Bears Take Control as Momentum Turns Dovish

• Price opened at 0.65 and closed at 0.616, with a 24-hour high of 0.656 and low of 0.61.
• A sharp downward correction followed a bullish breakout attempt, with oversold RSI readings near 25.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price breaking below 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown below 0.64, confirming bearish momentum.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high aligns near 0.625, signaling potential support.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.65 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.616 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The pair reached a high of 0.656 and hit a low of 0.61 during the session, recording a net bearish bias. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 16,148,954.7 units, while notional turnover amounted to $10,175,830.1 (approximate based on average price).

The structure of the 15-minute candles highlights a strong bearish bias, with the price falling into a descending channel after an initial bullish attempt. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 09:45 and 10:00 ET, followed by a long bearish candle on 09-19 11:45 ET. Support levels formed near 0.615 and 0.61, both of which were briefly tested. Resistance levels at 0.625 and 0.635 appear key for a potential short-term reversal.

The 20-period moving average currently sits at 0.63, and the 50-period line at 0.635, with price firmly below both. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart has crossed below the 200-period line, hinting at a broader bearish trend. MACD lines have turned negative, confirming downward momentum, while RSI has fallen into oversold territory around 25, suggesting potential near-term support. Bollinger Bands have expanded during the sell-off, with price near the lower band, indicating increased volatility.

Fibonacci retracement levels show that the 61.8% retracement of the recent high aligns with 0.625. This level could act as a key psychological barrier for short-term buyers. If price breaks below 0.615, the next Fibonacci support is at 0.607.

The pair may test 0.61–0.615 for support in the next 24 hours, but a break below this range could extend the downside to 0.605. However, traders should remain cautious of potential rebounds if the RSI remains in oversold territory for too long.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described assumes a short position triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern and confirmation via RSI entering oversold territory. A stop-loss would be placed above the recent high of the engulfing candle, while a take-profit is set at 61.8% of the recent swing. Given the strong bearish confirmation during the 09-19 11:45 candle and the oversold RSI reading, this scenario would have triggered a short signal with a high-probability outcome. A trailing stop could be considered as the pair consolidates near 0.615.