Arkham/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) declined 8.6% in 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour low of 0.289.
• Volume surged to $159.7M, but price fell, suggesting bearish divergence.
• Key support levels tested at 0.29 and 0.287, with resistance near 0.305.
• RSI hit oversold levels, hinting at possible near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded late afternoon, with Bollinger Bands widening.

ARKMUSDT opened at 0.303 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of 0.306, and closed at 0.289 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 8,926,116.1 with turnover of $2,648,137. The pair has been under bearish pressure since mid-afternoon, with a clear breakdown from key intraday levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.303–0.301 around 17:00 ET–1, signaling a short-term reversal. A deep doji at 19:00 ET–1 confirmed weakening momentum. Later in the session, a sharp breakdown below 0.300 into 0.289 marked a key support test at 0.29, with a secondary level forming at 0.287.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed below key pivot levels around 18:45 ET–1, reinforcing the bearish bias. Daily averages show the 50-period SMA crossing below the 100- and 200-period SMAs, a bearish signal known as the death cross.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and the histogram shrunk after 20:00 ET–1, indicating fading bearish momentum. However, RSI dropped below 30 near 0.29, suggesting oversold conditions. The RSI may find near-term support, but confirmation is needed on higher timeframes for a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakdown from 0.302 to 0.289, showing increasing volatility. Price ended the session near the lower band, indicating strong bearish control. A retest of the upper band at ~0.306 is unlikely in the short term unless bulls show strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.306–0.289 swing suggest 38.2% at 0.300 and 61.8% at 0.294. Current price sits near the 61.8% retracement, a potential zone for short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 22:30 ET–1 and 00:15 ET, particularly at 0.305 and 0.297, where large bearish print volumes were observed. Turnover increased to $71.6K and $46.9K during the final 15-minute print, signaling strong bearish pressure. Price and volume moved in alignment during the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current RSI oversold condition and the potential for a bounce, a rules-based backtest using daily data could model an entry on RSI < 30 and a MACD Golden Cross. However, since our back-test engine uses end-of-day data, the exit would occur at the next day’s close or open. This could approximate a one-day or overnight hold. Alternatively, a signal-only analysis could assess how often the combination of RSI Oversold and MACD Golden Cross precedes a positive next-day move. This aligns well with the current market structure, where a potential reversal may be brewing.