Arkham/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-17

• Price surged to 0.632 but retreated to 0.616, reflecting mixed momentum.
• Volatility expanded midday before contracting in the afternoon, indicating consolidation.
• Strong volume spikes occurred during the rally and early sell-off, confirming key moves.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence during the afternoon decline, hinting at potential bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands highlighted overbought levels during the rally, with price later dropping to the lower band.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.614 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.632 before closing at 0.616 as of 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. The price traded between 0.607 and 0.632 with a total volume of 10,170,509.5 and a turnover of 6,172,107.19 during the 24-hour period. The pair showed a volatile session with multiple attempts to hold above 0.62 but ultimately saw a pullback into the lower range.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a strong bullish breakout above 0.625 that failed to hold, leading to a pullback into a key support zone around 0.614–0.616. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak near 0.63, signaling potential exhaustion on the upside. The price action suggested 0.614 and 0.618 as immediate support and resistance levels, respectively, with a larger consolidation pattern emerging in the 0.612–0.622 range. A doji near 0.622 in the morning hinted at indecision and possible trend reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above 0.618 during the morning rally, confirming bullish momentum. However, by the afternoon, the 20-period MA dropped below the 50-period MA, forming a potential death cross. The daily 50-period MA hovered near 0.618, aligning with resistance. The 100- and 200-period MAs remained lower, at 0.614 and 0.611, respectively, suggesting the long-term trend may still be bullish, but short-term bearish pressure is growing.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed positive momentum during the morning breakout and negative momentum during the afternoon pullback. A bearish crossover occurred at 0.622 as the price failed to sustain the rally. The RSI peaked at 66 during the high and dropped to 47, indicating overbought conditions were followed by a correction. A bearish divergence between the RSI and price action was visible during the decline from 0.63 to 0.616, reinforcing potential bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the morning rally as price surged toward 0.632, indicating increased volatility and bullish exhaustion. By the afternoon, the bands had contracted, and the price dropped below the lower band at 0.610–0.611, showing a potential oversold condition. The narrowing of the bands may indicate a potential breakout or breakdown in the coming hours, with 0.610 and 0.625 as key levels to watch.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning breakout, exceeding 200,000 on several 15-minute intervals, and again in the afternoon when price dropped to 0.616. Turnover spiked at these times, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume dropped significantly after the price pulled back, indicating a lack of follow-through for both bullish and bearish moves. Divergence between price and volume was noted in the afternoon, with the price falling despite moderate volume, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning high of 0.632 and the subsequent low of 0.612, key levels include 0.625 (38.2%), 0.621 (50%), and 0.616 (61.8%). The price tested the 50% and 61.8% levels during its pullback, which could act as support or resistance in the next 24 hours. On a daily basis, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are near 0.618 and 0.614, aligning with the key support and resistance levels observed in the structure analysis.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair might focus on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and using RSI divergence as a trigger for bearish entries. Given the observed bearish engulfing and doji patterns, a short-biased strategy entering near 0.622 and targeting the 0.614 support level could be tested. Stop-loss placement could be at the upper band of the Bollinger Bands near 0.625 to limit risk. If the price fails to break 0.614, a long position could be initiated with a target near 0.620, supported by the 50-period MA.