Ark/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-10

• Ark/Tether traded in a 0.4115–0.4338 range over 24 hours, closing 0.4076 at 12:00 ET after a sharp sell-off post 15:30 ET.
• Momentum shifted rapidly from overbought (RSI 72) to oversold (RSI 23), suggesting strong bearish pressure in final 6 hours.
• Volatility expanded late in the session with a 168,667 volume candle at 15:45 ET, confirming the breakdown from key support at 0.4119.
• Bollinger Bands widened by 12.7% in final 4 hours, aligning with declining price and increased risk of a short-term reversal.
• 20-period MA crossed below 50-period MA early in the session, signaling bearish momentum, while 50/200 daily MA trend remained neutral.

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.4227 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.4338 before closing at 0.4076 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total 24-hour volume reached 1.36 million units, with a notional turnover of $513,727. The pair experienced a sharp breakdown from key support at 0.4119 after a bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart around 15:30 ET.

The market structure showed strong bearish bias throughout the session, with price finding resistance at 0.4315–0.4325 in the morning before retreating. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.4119–0.4338 swing coincided with the 0.4250 level, where price struggled and eventually broke below it. Support levels at 0.4200 and 0.4115 were tested multiple times, with the latter failing to hold due to heavy volume and negative price action.

RSI collapsed from overbought conditions to an oversold reading of 23 by session close, suggesting the potential for a near-term bounce. MACD showed a bearish crossover and a declining histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands saw a sharp expansion in the final 4 hours, as price broke lower and volatility increased. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, a bearish signal for the short-term trend.

The 15-minute RSI bottomed at 23, indicating a possible short-term oversold condition and suggesting a limited bounce could occur. However, the breakdown from 0.4119 and the bearish momentum on the MACD and volume metrics imply that the next level of support at 0.4044–0.4069 is at risk. Traders should watch for a potential 15-minute bullish reversal candle or a rejection from the lower Bollinger Band for early signs of a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy to backtest involves entering a short position on a 15-minute chart when the close falls below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.4250 in this case) and RSI drops below 40, with a stop above the 50-period MA and a target at the next Fibonacci level or key support. The 2025-10-10 session aligns with this setup, where the breakdown at 0.4250 and RSI below 40 were followed by a -6.2% move to 0.4076. This suggests the strategy could be profitable in similar bearish setups with high volatility and clear support levels.