Ardelyx experimenta un aumento del 12% debido al fuerte crecimiento en los ingresos para el año 2025, además de una perspectiva de crecimiento aún más importante para el año 2026.

Summary
• Ardelyx (ARDX) surges 12.09% to $6.535, hitting an intraday high of $6.75
• Preliminary 2025 revenue of $378M, with IBSRELA contributing $274M (73% YoY growth)
• 2026 guidance targets $410–430M in IBSRELA revenue and $1B by 2029

Ardelyx’s stock erupted on January 8, 2026, driven by robust 2025 revenue results and an aggressive 2026 growth roadmap. The biopharma giant’s lead product, IBSRELA, delivered $274M in revenue, a 73% jump, while XPHOZAH added $104M. With $265M in cash and a patent extension to 2041, investors are betting on sustained momentum.

2025 Revenue and 2026 Guidance Ignite Bullish Sentiment
Ardelyx’s 12.09% intraday surge stems from its preliminary 2025 revenue report, which revealed $378M in product sales—$274M from IBSRELA and $104M from XPHOZAH. The company’s 2026 guidance of $410–430M for IBSRELA (50%+ growth) and a $1B 2029 target for the same drug has reinvigorated investor confidence. Additionally, a Phase 3 trial for IBSRELA in chronic idiopathic constipation and a patent extension to 2041 underscore long-term value. The $265M cash balance further de-risks growth investments, making the stock a short-term winner.

Pharmaceuticals Sector Mixed as J&J Trails Ardelyx’s Surge
The broader pharmaceutical sector showed mixed momentum, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rising 0.6% on the day. While JNJ’s modest gain reflects stable fundamentals, Ardelyx’s 12% jump highlights its high-growth narrative. Unlike JNJ’s diversified portfolio, Ardelyx’s focus on IBSRELA and XPHOZAH—both with strong commercial traction—has created a stark performance divergence. The sector’s cautious tone contrasts with Ardelyx’s aggressive revenue projections, positioning it as a standout in a fragmented market.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Playbook
• 200-day MA: $5.07 (well below current price)
• RSI: 46.19 (neutral, suggesting potential for upward correction)
• MACD: 0.022 (bullish crossover with signal line at 0.038)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $6.535, above the upper band of $6.236

Ardelyx’s technicals and options chain suggest a high-volatility trade. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA and Bollinger Bands, with RSI in neutral territory, hinting at upward potential. The MACD histogram (-0.0156) indicates a narrowing bearish trend, but the crossover suggests a possible reversal. Key levels to watch: $6.75 (intraday high) and $5.52 (lower Bollinger Band).

Top Options Picks:
• ARDX20260220C7 (Call, $7 strike, 2026-02-20):
- IV: 66.01% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.43 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0089 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.26 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $11,838 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.54%
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.77 (max(0, 6.86 - 7))
- Why: High gamma and moderate IV make this call ideal for a short-term rally. The 5% upside scenario yields a 11% return, aligning with Ardelyx’s bullish momentum.

• ARDX20260220P6 (Put, $6 strike, 2026-02-20):
- IV: 67.94% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.31 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0039 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.23 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $3,635 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 18.64%
- Payoff at 5% Upside: $0.00 (max(0, 6 - 6.86))
- Why: This put offers downside protection with high gamma, ideal for hedging against a potential pullback. While the 5% upside scenario yields no profit, it caps losses if the stock corrects.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target the $6.75 intraday high, with a stop-loss at $6.12 (intraday low). For a balanced approach, pair the ARDX20260220C7 call with the ARDX20260220P6 put to hedge against volatility. The 5% upside scenario favors the call, but the put ensures risk management.

Backtest Ardelyx Stock Performance
The backtest of ARDX's performance after a 12% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 49.48%, the 10-day win rate is 51.55%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.59%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 17.07%, which occurred on day 57 after the surge, suggesting that while there was some volatility, the ETF was able to generate decent returns over various time frames.

Ardelyx’s 2026 Growth Story Gains Momentum—Act Now
Ardelyx’s 12% surge is a clear signal of investor optimism around its 2026 revenue targets and long-term pipeline. With IBSRELA on track to hit $410–430M in 2026 and a patent extension to 2041, the stock is positioned for sustained growth. Key catalysts to watch: the Phase 3 CIC trial results (expected H2 2027) and Medicare reimbursement outcomes for XPHOZAH. For now, the ARDX20260220C7 call offers a high-gamma, high-leverage play on a potential $6.75 breakout. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson’s 0.6% rise underscores the sector’s cautious tone, making Ardelyx’s momentum all the more compelling. Act now: Buy the call for upside exposure and the put for downside protection, with a target of $6.75 and a stop at $6.12.