ArcelorMittal Plummets 6.35%: South Africa Sale Stalls, Job Cuts, and Tariff Woes Spark Sell-Off

Summary
• ArcelorMittal (MT) plunges 6.35% to $37.01, its lowest since March 2024
• Intraday range of $36.99–$38.62 amid stalled South Africa unit sale and 4,000+ job cuts
• Options volume surges, with $491M IDC bid for South Africa operations in limbo

Today’s sharp selloff in ArcelorMittal reflects a perfect storm of operational headwinds and regulatory uncertainty. The stock’s 6.35% drop—its worst intraday performance since March 2024—has been fueled by stalled negotiations for its South African unit, union-driven job cuts, and rising tariff pressures. With options volatility spiking and sector peers like Nucor also under pressure, investors are recalibrating risk exposure ahead of critical earnings and policy developments.

South Africa Sale Stalls, Tariff Pressures, and Job Cuts Trigger Panic
ArcelorMittal’s freefall stems from three critical catalysts. First, the $491M IDC bid for its South African operations has stalled due to valuation disputes, with unions warning of 4,000+ job cuts. Second, U.S. Commerce Department tariffs on steel imports—expanding to 400+ products—threaten margins. Third, the company’s recent $650M bond issuance at 3.25% signals capital-raising urgency amid weak demand. These factors have triggered a liquidity-driven selloff, exacerbated by short-covering and options expiration dynamics.

Steel Sector Mixed as Nucor Slides 2.95%
The steel sector remains fragmented. Nucor (NUE), the sector’s bellwether, fell 2.95% on weak pricing stability, while European peers like thyssenkrupp saw modest gains. ArcelorMittal’s decline, however, is more tied to its unique South Africa exposure and capital structure challenges than broad sector trends. Tariff-related volatility and decarbonization costs continue to weigh on the industry.

Options Playbook: Puts for Protection, Calls for Aggressive Bets
• 200-day MA: $30.39 (well below current price)
• RSI: 71.52 (overbought, suggesting near-term exhaustion)
• MACD: 1.46 (bullish divergence with 1.14 signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: $33.04–$40.48 (price near lower band, indicating oversold conditions)

Key levels to watch: $34.65 (30D support) and $30.23 (200D support). Short-term technicals favor a rebound, but structural risks like the stalled South Africa deal and tariff hikes remain. No leveraged ETF data is available, but options offer tactical flexibility.

Top Options Picks:
1. MT20251017P36 (Put Option)
• Code: MT20251017P36
• Type: Put
• Strike: $36
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 42.49% (moderate)
• Leverage: 73.96%
• Delta: -0.3197 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0081 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.1537 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 8,250 (liquid)
This put offers asymmetric upside if the stock breaks below $36, with high gamma amplifying gains in a bearish move. Projected payoff at 5% downside (to $35.16): $0.84 per contract.

2. MT20251017C35 (Call Option)
• Code: MT20251017C35
• Type: Call
• Strike: $35
• Expiry: 2025-10-17
• IV: 75.62% (elevated)
• Leverage: 13.21%
• Delta: 0.7097 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1657 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.0827 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: 280 (liquid)
This call is ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a rebound above $35. Projected payoff at 5% upside (to $38.86): $3.86 per contract. High delta ensures participation in a short-term rally.

Action Alert: Aggressive bulls may consider MT20251017C35 into a bounce above $35.50. If $34.65 breaks, MT20251017P36 offers short-side potential.

Backtest Arcelormittal Stock Performance
Below is an interactive visual report of the requested back-test. Please click or scroll to view the module for full statistics, equity-curve, and trade list.Key modelling notes • Risk controls (TP 20 %, SL 8 %, max-hold 20 days) were auto-filled as standard swing-trade safeguards since the user did not specify exits. • All qualifying trades from 1 Jan 2022 to 10 Oct 2025 are included. • Performance figures (CAGR, hit-rate, max drawdown, etc.) are accessible in the module. Feel free to let me know if you’d like to tweak any parameters—e.g., different exit rules, position sizing, or a narrower date window.

Urgent: Watch South Africa Deal and Tariff Rulings—Position for Volatility
ArcelorMittal’s selloff is far from over, with the stalled South Africa deal and U.S. tariff expansions posing existential risks. Technicals suggest a rebound near $34.65, but structural headwinds could push the stock toward 200D support at $30.23. Investors should monitor the $35.50 level for a potential reversal. Meanwhile, sector leader Nucor (NUE) fell 2.95%, underscoring broader industry fragility. Act now: Buy MT20251017C35 for a bullish rebound or MT20251017P36 for downside protection. Watch for a $34.65 breakdown or regulatory clarity on the South Africa bid.