ArcelorMittal Jumps 5.86% As Technicals Confirm Bullish Breakout

Arcelormittal (MT) surged 5.86% to close at $33.05 on July 2, 2025, breaching key resistance levels. The following technical analysis evaluates this move through multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
A bullish engulfing pattern formed as the July 2nd candle (open: $32.56, close: $33.05) completely overshadowed the prior day’s red candle. This reversal signal occurred near a critical resistance zone of $33.16–$33.22, aligning with the March 19 peak of $33.23. Immediate support rests at $32.56 (July 2 low), with stronger demand near $31.30–$31.40, where multiple swing lows and the 50-day moving average converge.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($31.00) crossed bullishly above both the 100-day ($30.40) and 200-day MA ($28.50) in Q2 2025, confirming a long-term uptrend. Price currently trades above all three key averages—a bullish configuration. The rising slope of the 50-day MA suggests accelerating momentum, while the 200-day MA’s upward inflection indicates improving macro-trend health.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows expanding bullish momentum, with the MACD line (0.85) decisively above its signal line (0.65). However, the KDJ oscillator enters overbought territory (K: 85, D: 80), suggesting near-term exhaustion risk. While both indicators align on the prevailing uptrend, KDJ’s divergence from price—rising less sharply during the July 2 surge—warrants monitoring for potential consolidation.
Bollinger Bands
Price closed above the upper Bollinger Band ($32.50) on July 2, signaling an overextended move. Band width expanded sharply (+25% week-over-week), indicating volatility acceleration. Historically, such expansions preceded short-term pullbacks to the 20-day midline ($31.20). However, consecutive closes above the upper band would confirm exceptional bullish strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 5.86% surge occurred on 2.40 million shares—55% above the 30-day average—validating breakout conviction. Volume steadily increased during the three-day recovery from $31.22 (July 1), confirming accumulation. This contrasts with the June 27 decline on below-average volume, indicating limited capitulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (72) entered overbought territory, aligning with KDJ signals. While RSI has not yet formed bearish divergence against price, its current level coincides with prior reversal zones in March 2025. Traders should view this as a cautionary signal rather than an immediate reversal trigger, as RSI can remain extended during strong trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the swing low of $20.52 (August 5, 2024) and high of $33.23 (March 19, 2025):
- 78.6% retracement at $30.50 (support)
- 100% extension at $33.23 (resistance)
The July 2 close at $33.05 tests the 100% level. A decisive break above $33.23 would target the 138.2% extension ($35.80). The 78.6% level ($30.50) held as support during June’s consolidation, reinforcing its technical significance.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluent bullish signals include: the breakout above $33.16 occurring alongside high volume, MACD acceleration, and golden cross confirmation. Key resistance confluence exists at $33.20–$33.30 (Bollinger Band, Fib 100%, prior swing high). Divergences appear in momentum oscillators—while RSI and KDJ reflect overbought conditions, neither yet shows bearish divergence against price. The next session’s close relative to $33.23 should clarify breakout sustainability.