ArcBest Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market SnapshotHeadline Takeaway: ArcBest (ARCB.O) is showing a weak technical outlook with a recent price drop of -10.81%, while mixed analyst views and poor historical ratings add uncertainty. Stance: Cautious Avoidance.News Highlights May 29, 2025: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services revised its guidance for the approval of COVID-19 vaccines. While unrelated to ArcBest, it highlights regulatory shifts that could impact broader economic sentiment and logistics. May 31, 2025: President Trump fast-tracked a uranium mine in Utah, signaling a potential shift in energy policy. This could indirectly benefit ArcBest’s logistics network as uranium demand increases and supply chains adjust. May 14, 2025: Discovery’s first-quarter 2025 earnings call warned of risks from international trade policies and supply chain disruptions. Given ArcBest’s global logistics focus, this aligns with potential headwinds the company may face.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Three analysts across three institutions have rated ArcBest over the last 20 days: Simple Average Rating: 3.67 (on a scale where "Strong Buy" = 5, "Sell" = 1) Weighted Rating (Performance-Weighted): 2.11 Rating Consistency: Mixed — with ratings ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Neutral," there is no strong consensus among analysts.Analysts from UBS (Thomas Wadewitz) and Wells Fargo (Christian Wetherbee) have historically mixed track records. UBS has a 50.0% win rate with an average gain of 2.05%, while Stifel (J. Bruce Chan) has a poor 16.7% win rate and a negative average return of -4.33%.Despite these ratings, the price trend has been negative (-10.81%), and the ratings are broadly neutral to cautious. This mismatch suggests either market skepticism or delayed recognition of fundamental developments.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is also stepping back from ArcBest. The fund-flow score is 7.88, an internal diagnostic score (0-10), indicating relatively strong inflow from institutional investors compared to the broader market. However, the overall trend is negative across all categories: Small-investor inflow ratio: 48.21% Medium-investor inflow ratio: 48.78% Large-investor inflow ratio: 49.68% Extra-large (block) inflow ratio: 49.45%Despite the relatively high inflow ratios, the fact that all investor categories are trending negative suggests broad unease. Retail and institutional flows are both pulling back, reinforcing the case for caution.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for ArcBest is clearly bearish. Over the last 5 days, the internal diagnostic technical score is 1.96, an internal diagnostic score (0-10), which points to a weak trend. Long Lower Shadow: This chart pattern has an internal diagnostic score of 1.00, suggesting strong bearish pressure. Historically, it has led to an average return of -2.06% with a win rate of 38.46%. Long Upper Shadow: Another bearish signal with an internal diagnostic score of 1.00, showing similar bearish tendencies. The pattern historically results in an average return of -2.07% and a win rate of 28.57%. WR Oversold: This indicator has an internal diagnostic score of 3.87, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish signal. However, its historical average return is just 0.07% with a 55.56% win rate.The recent indicators from 2025-11-10 to 2025-11-14 show a pattern of Long Lower Shadow and WR Oversold repeatedly appearing. This suggests volatility and a lack of clear direction, with bears in control.

Conclusion

Given the bearish technical indicators, the weak price trend, and the lack of strong consensus among analysts, ArcBest remains a high-risk stock. The internal diagnostic technical score of 1.96 and the mixed analyst ratings both signal caution.

Backtest the impact of ARCB.O with WR Oversold, from 2022 to now.