Arbor Realty ABR Stock Sees Surge in Options Activity, Implied Volatility Up 18%

Arbor Realty (ABR) has seen a surge in options activity, with call contracts reaching 14,848 trades, driving implied volatility up by almost 18 points to 57.90%. The Sep-25 13 calls and Sep-25 16 calls are the most active, accounting for 6,300 contracts. Investors are closely watching the stock ahead of its earnings report on August 1st. Analysts forecast an average target price of $11.83, with a high estimate of $13.50 and a low estimate of $11.00. The average brokerage recommendation is 3.3, indicating "Hold" status.

Arbor Realty (ABR) has experienced a notable surge in options activity, with call contracts reaching 14,848 trades, a sevenfold increase over expected volume. This surge has driven implied volatility to jump by almost 18 points, settling at 57.90%. The most active contracts are the Sep-25 13 calls and Sep-25 16 calls, which together account for approximately 6,300 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio for ABR stands at 0.45, indicating a strong preference for calls over puts. Investors are closely watching the stock ahead of its earnings report scheduled for August 1st [1].

Analysts have set an average target price of $11.83 for Arbor Realty Trust Inc (ABR), with a high estimate of $13.50 and a low estimate of $11.00. The average brokerage recommendation is 3.3, indicating a "Hold" status. Based on GuruFocus estimates, the GF Value for ABR in one year is $6.83, suggesting a downside of 42.73% from the current price of $11.925 [1].

Key business developments for ABR include:
- Distributable earnings of $57.3 million or $0.28 per share in Q1 2025, excluding $7 million of one-time realized losses.
- A quarterly dividend reset to $0.30 per share.
- Originations of $370 million in new bridge loans and $606 million in agency loan originations, with $731 million in loan sales.
- A robust pipeline of approximately $2 billion, indicating confidence in meeting 2025 guidance despite a slower start.

However, the company also faced challenges, including additional delinquencies of approximately $109 million, bringing total delinquencies to $654 million as of March 31. The higher interest rate environment negatively impacted the origination business, contributing to a slower first quarter. The company recorded an additional $16 million in specific reserves in the first quarter due to the current economic environment [1].

The upcoming earnings report on August 1st will provide further insights into ABR's performance and the impact of the interest rate environment and asset turnaround execution on its financial health.

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2994796/options-activity-surge-sends-arbor-realty-abr-implied-volatility-upward-abr-stock-news