Arbitrum/Bitcoin Market Overview (24-Hour Analysis: 2025-10-12 12:00 ET–2025-10-13 12:00 ET)

• Arbitrum/Bitcoin traded in a tightening range, with a key support at 2.92e-06 and resistance at 3.04e-06.
• Price closed near the day’s low at 3e-06, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volatility dipped into consolidation, with a high turnover spike near 13:45 ET indicating a major liquidity shift.
• RSI signaled moderate bearish momentum, with MACD narrowing, pointing to potential trend reversal.
• Volume surged during key breakouts and breakdowns, confirming bearish sentiment.

Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) opened at 2.94e-06 and traded between 2.87e-06 and 3.05e-06, closing at 3e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1.54M contracts, with a notional turnover of ~$3.18M (assuming $30k Bitcoin price). Price action showed a bearish drift, with a strong rejection from the 3.04e-06 resistance level and a consolidation below 3.02e-06.

A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the 3.04e-06–3.02e-06 swing high, followed by a doji near 3.02e-06, signaling indecision. Price remained below the 50-period and 20-period moving averages for most of the session, reinforcing a weak near-term trend. However, a short-lived rally toward 3.05e-06 suggested lingering multi- and intraday buyers, though momentum failed to confirm.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the morning, followed by a widening in the afternoon as volatility spiked. ARBBTC closed near the lower band, indicating bearish bias. RSI remained below 50, dipping to the 42–45 range, signaling moderate oversold conditions but no clear reversal. MACD lines crossed into negative territory, with bearish divergence forming as price tested key support levels.

Fibonacci levels showed 3.02e-06 as a 61.8% retracement of the prior bullish move, aligning with the doji. A breakdown below 2.96e-06 would target 2.92e-06 as the next critical support. A close above 3.04e-06 could rekindle bullish momentum, but confirmation is needed.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a close below the 50-period moving average, with a stop just above the 3.04e-06 resistance and a target at 2.92e-06. A long bias could be triggered if ARBBTC closes above 3.04e-06 and stays above the 50-period MA for two consecutive candles, with a stop below the 2.96e-06 support. This approach would align with the observed bearish momentum and key level interactions seen in the 15-minute OHLCV data.