Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) 24-Hour Market Overview

• APTJPY opened at ¥614.20 and closed at ¥592.20, down 3.6% over 24 hours.
• Price formed key bearish patterns, including a shooting star and a breakdown of support.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning, with a 4.5% intrabar move from ¥596.80 to ¥592.10.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum divergence with price, indicating potential further weakness.
• Volume spiked in the early morning session, confirming bearish sentiment and breakdown.

APTJPY opened at ¥614.20 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥592.20 at the same time on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour high reached ¥614.80, while the low dropped to ¥587.30. Total volume for the session was approximately 13,973.6 APT, and turnover was ¥8,222,568.63 JPY. The pair exhibited a broad downtrend, with a breakdown below a key support level and increased bearish momentum.

The structure of the price action suggests a bearish bias. A significant breakdown occurred at the ¥593.20 level, confirmed by a large bearish candle with high volume. Notable patterns include a shooting star at the session high and a long bearish engulfing pattern in the early morning hours. Resistance appears to be forming around ¥596.00 and ¥599.50, while key support levels are likely at ¥590.00 and ¥587.00.

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below price, confirming a short-term downtrend. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is also below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias over the longer term. The MACD is bearish and in negative territory, with a narrowing histogram, indicating waning momentum. RSI is in oversold territory near 30, but price continues to drop, showing bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands widened during the breakdown, and price remains near the lower band, suggesting increased volatility and a potential continuation of the trend.

Volume and turnover spiked in the early morning hours, with high volume accompanying the breakdown of ¥593.20. This confirms the bearish move, as price and volume action aligned. A divergence in volume and price is not evident, but the high turnover during the breakdown suggests institutional participation. Fibonacci retracements suggest key levels at 38.2% (¥599.10), 61.8% (¥593.30), and the 100% level (¥587.30). The 61.8% and 100% levels appear to be acting as short-term support, with the 100% level showing some buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI, the breakdown confirmation by high volume and price action, and the alignment with key Fibonacci levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the 61.8% retracement level (¥593.30), with a stop-loss placed just above the breakdown candle high at ¥594.50. A take-profit could be set at the 100% Fibonacci level (¥587.30) and potentially extended to ¥584.00, considering the volatility and support cluster observed near ¥587.00.

This strategy assumes a continuation of the bearish bias, supported by the RSI divergence and Bollinger Band behavior. However, traders should remain cautious of a potential reversal should price retest ¥593.30 with a bullish reversal pattern and strong volume.