Applovin Stock Plunges 7.05% In Two Days As Bearish Signals Mount

Applovin (APP) has experienced significant technical deterioration recently, closing at $344.56 with a 4.41% decline in the most recent session. This marks two consecutive down days, resulting in a 7.05% loss over this period. The following technical analysis synthesizes key indicators across multiple methodologies:
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions exhibit bearish candlestick patterns including three black crows (June 12-13 and June 17-18), confirming strong selling pressure. The stock faces staunch resistance near the $380-$384 zone (tested unsuccessfully on June 10-12), while immediate support lies around $338.65 (June 18 low). A sustained break below $338 could trigger further downside targeting the March 2025 consolidation zone near $316.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($368) recently crossed below the 100-day MA ($372), signaling deteriorating medium-term momentum. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, however, with price holding above the rising 200-day MA ($288). This dichotomy creates a technical conflict - bearish near-term posture against bullish longer-term structure. A confirmed break below the 200-day MA would indicate a primary trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD lines remain below the zero line with histogram bars expanding negatively, confirming bearish momentum acceleration. Meanwhile, KDJ oscillators show the %K line (16) deeply oversold and attempting to curl upward from extreme territory. While MACD signals continued downside risk, KDJ’s oversold reading may foreshadow a technical bounce - though divergence is noted as MACD lacks corresponding bullish confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded sharply during the June 18 sell-off (20% wider than June 16), reflecting rising volatility amid directional pressure. Price closed near the lower band ($338) indicating persistent bearish control. A sustained close below the lower band would signal capitulation, while mean reversion toward the $365 midline remains possible if volatility contracts.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate with above-average volume accompanying down days (June 13: -4.23% on 4.35M shares vs 20-day avg 4.01M; June 18: -4.41% on 5.41M shares). Notably, the June 13 rejection at resistance occurred on the highest volume since late May, validating supply concentration near $380. This volume signature reinforces the resistance level's technical significance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (35) approaches oversold territory but lacks historical extremes seen at major bottoms (sub-30 in April 2024). While not yet oversold, downward momentum may be nearing exhaustion. However, traders should note that RSI can remain depressed during strong downtrends - the indicator currently implies further downside potential before stabilization occurs.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March-June 2025 rally ($261 to $519) shows critical confluent support:
- 38.2% retracement: $422 (breached decisively)
- 50% level: $390 (recent breakdown point)
- 61.8% level: $358 (violated June 18)
The 78.6% retracement at $316 aligns with the March consolidation low and represents the next major technical floor. This convergence of Fibonacci and horizontal support makes $316-$330 a high-probability reversal zone should selling pressure persist.
Confluence Note: The $316-$330 support zone gains technical significance from three independent methodologies: Fibonacci retracement (78.6% level at $316), horizontal price structure (March lows), and volume-profile (high-volume node near $327 in March). Key Divergence: While MACD and moving averages confirm bearish momentum, KDJ shows oversold conditions that may enable counter-trend recovery if supported by volume. Probability favors downside continuation toward confluent support near $316 absent a decisive reclaim of the 50-day MA ($368).