Applied Digital tuvo un aumento del 12.57% en sus resultados del segundo trimestre, debido a un fuerte crecimiento y a una cartera de proyectos de expansión de 900 MW.

Summary
• Shares of Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) rocketed 17.6% to $37.57, hitting an intraday high of $38.32
• Q2 revenue nearly doubled to $126.6M, driven by $85M from a major AI client at Polaris Forge 1
• Analysts raised price targets (Roth to $58, Arete to $99) and initiated 'Buy' ratings
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded with implied volatility above 68%, including APLD20260116C35 (335% leverage ratio)

Applied Digital’s explosive 17.6% intraday surge has ignited a frenzy in the options market and drawn bullish analyst attention. The stock’s meteoric rise follows a Q2 earnings beat, with revenue doubling to $126.6M and analysts upgrading price targets. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $40.20, traders are scrambling to position for the next leg of this AI infrastructure play’s volatile ascent.

Q2 Earnings and Analyst Upgrades Ignite APLD's Explosive Move
Applied Digital’s 17.6% intraday surge stems from a perfect storm of earnings outperformance and analyst upgrades. The company’s Q2 revenue nearly doubled to $126.6M, driven by $85M in revenue from its Polaris Forge 1 campus energized for a major AI client. Adjusted net income turned breakeven, far exceeding Wall Street’s loss forecast. Analysts responded with aggressive upgrades: Roth Capital raised its price target to $58, Arete Research initiated at $99, and B. Riley lifted its target to $53. The stock’s volatility—92 moves of over 5% in the past year—suggests this move is a rare, news-driven spike rather than routine trading.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Bets
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 74.36 (overbought), MACD 0.61 (bullish), 200-day MA at $17.15 (far below current price)
• Key Levels: 200-day MA ($17.15) as critical support; 52-week high ($40.20) as near-term resistance
• Options Focus: APLD20260116C35 (strike $35, 335% leverage) and APLD20260116C36 (375% leverage) stand out for their high implied volatility (84.18% and 88.00%) and moderate delta (0.77 and 0.69).

APLD20260116C35:
• Code: APLD20260116C35
• Type: Call
• Strike: $35
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 84.18% (high volatility)
• LVR: 335% (aggressive leverage)
• Delta: 0.77 (moderate price sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2238 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0640 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: $2.68M (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($39.45): $4.45/share gain
• This contract offers explosive potential if APLD continues its AI-driven rally, with high leverage and gamma amplifying gains as the stock rises.

APLD20260116C36:
• Code: APLD20260116C36
• Type: Call
• Strike: $36
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 88.00% (extreme volatility)
• LVR: 375% (ultra-leverage)
• Delta: 0.69 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2304 (rapid decay)
• Gamma: 0.0711 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: $2.23M (liquid)
• Payoff at 5% upside ($39.45): $3.45/share gain
• This contract’s 375% leverage ratio makes it ideal for aggressive bulls, though its higher strike price requires a stronger move to unlock full potential.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should prioritize APLD20260116C35 for its balance of leverage and liquidity. Watch for a break above $38.32 (intraday high) to confirm continuation. Conservative traders may use APLD20260116C36 as a high-risk, high-reward play if the stock closes above $36.50.

Backtest Applied Digital Stock Performance
The backtest of APDL's performance after a 18% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.20%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.41%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.29%. The maximum return during the backtest was 34.03% over 30 days, indicating that APDL has a tendency to continue performing well in the short term following a significant intraday surge.

APLD’s AI Infrastructure Play: Ride the Wave or Ride the Volatility?
Applied Digital’s 17.6% surge is a testament to its AI infrastructure momentum, but sustainability hinges on maintaining its Polaris Forge 1/2 growth trajectory and securing new hyperscaler contracts. Technicals suggest overbought conditions (RSI 74.36), but the stock’s 52-week high of $40.20 remains within reach. Traders should monitor the 200-day MA ($17.15) as a critical support level and watch analyst upgrades for further catalysts. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM), the sector leader, rose 0.49% today, signaling broader tech-sector optimism. For APLD, the next 72 hours will test whether this rally is a parabolic breakout or a volatile correction. Act now: Buy APLD20260116C35 if $38.32 holds; exit if the 200-day MA breaks.