Applied Digital cae un 16,8 % en medio de la rotación del sector de la IA: ¿Es una oportunidad de compra o una señal de alerta?

Summary
• APLD shares nosedive 16.8% intraday to $23.175, erasing $4.69 from its opening price
• Turnover surges to 33.9 million shares, 14.77% of its float, signaling intense short-term positioning
• 52-week high of $40.20 now 47.7% above current price, highlighting extreme volatility

Applied Digital’s stock is in freefall as investors rotate out of AI-linked infrastructure plays, triggering a sharp selloff despite the company’s $16 billion in contracted revenue. The move reflects broader caution in the sector rather than company-specific issues, with technical indicators and options activity pointing to a pivotal moment for long-term holders.

Profit-Taking and Sector Rotation Trigger Sharp Selloff
APLD’s 16.8% intraday decline is driven by profit-taking following a 141% surge in six months and broader sector rotation out of AI infrastructure stocks. The stock’s sharp pullback aligns with market dynamics rather than operational concerns, as no new company-specific disclosures triggered the move. Elevated trading volume (33.9 million shares) and a 12.3% drop from its 52-week high indicate active repositioning by investors wary of overvalued AI plays. The stock’s short-term technicals—trading 18.5% below its 50-day SMA and 4.6% above its 100-day SMA—highlight bearish momentum despite long-term bullish fundamentals.

Data Processing & Outsourced Services Sector Mixed as Equinix Gains
The Data Processing & Outsourced Services sector remains fragmented, with Equinix (EQIX) rising 1.01% despite APLD’s selloff. This divergence underscores APLD’s unique exposure to AI infrastructure volatility, as its 16.8% drop far outpaces the sector’s mixed performance. While EQIX benefits from stable colocation demand, APLD’s hyperscale focus makes it more susceptible to sentiment shifts in AI-driven markets.

Options and ETF Strategies for Navigating APLD’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 15.51 (far below current price)
• RSI: 69.9 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 0.73 (bullish) vs. signal line 0.29
• Bollinger Bands: Current price at $23.18 (near lower band of $19.10)

APLD’s technicals present a high-risk, high-reward setup. The stock is testing critical support levels near its 100-day SMA ($23.30) and Bollinger lower band ($19.10), with RSI hovering near overbought territory. For aggressive traders, the APLD20251219P23 put option (strike $23, expiration Dec 19) offers leverage (19.95%) and high gamma (0.127) to capitalize on a potential breakdown. Conversely, the APLD20251219C24 call option (strike $24, expiration Dec 19) provides 27.23% leverage and moderate delta (0.417) for a bullish rebound. Both contracts have high turnover ($103k and $221k, respectively), ensuring liquidity. A 5% downside scenario (targeting $21.97) would yield a 13.5% return on the put, while a 5% rebound would deliver 10.4% on the call. Traders should monitor the $23.50 resistance level and 50-day SMA ($26.85) for directional clues.

Backtest Applied Digital Stock Performance
The backtest of APDL's performance after a -17% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 56.05%, the 10-Day win rate is 55.61%, and the 30-Day win rate is 61.66%. Additionally, the maximum return during the backtest period was 37.25%, with a maximum return day at 59.

APLD at Inflection Point: Act Now or Miss the Rebound
Applied Digital’s 16.8% selloff has created a critical juncture for investors. While the stock’s long-term fundamentals—$11 billion in contracted CoreWeave revenue and $500 million in projected NOI from Polaris Forge 1—remain intact, short-term volatility demands caution. The key levels to watch are $23.50 (immediate support) and $26.85 (50-day SMA). Equinix’s 1.01% gain suggests the sector isn’t in freefall, but APLD’s hyperscale focus keeps it vulnerable to sentiment shifts. Aggressive bulls may consider the APLD20251219C24 call into a bounce above $26.85, while bears should target a breakdown below $23.50 with the APLD20251219P23 put. For long-term holders, this pullback offers a discounted entry point into a company with $16 billion in contracted revenue—provided execution risks are mitigated.