Apple's Q4 2024 Earnings: Key Factors and Expectations

As Apple (AAPL) prepares to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on October 29, 2024, investors are eager to understand the key factors that could influence the tech giant's performance. Here, we analyze the potential impact of the iPhone 16's sales trajectory, its performance in China, and late-cycle iPhone 15 shipments on Apple's Q4 2024 earnings.


1. iPhone 16 Sales Trajectory: The iPhone 16's sales trajectory in the fourth quarter of 2024 will significantly impact Apple's earnings. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have raised their estimate for iPhones shipped in the quarter to 55 million units, up from 52.5 million units previously and above the Street consensus of 50 million. This upward revision "more than offsets" expected weakness in Mac sales, the firm said. A strong iPhone 16 launch could drive Apple's revenue and earnings growth, while a slower-than-expected sales trajectory could dampen results.
2. iPhone 16 Performance in China: The iPhone 16's performance in China will also influence Apple's overall Q4 2024 earnings. According to Counterpoint Research data cited by Bloomberg, the iPhone 16 outsold its predecessor in China by 20% in the three weeks following its release. This supports the "China iPhone rebound thesis" and suggests that Apple is likely to capture a larger share of the Chinese market. A strong performance in China could boost Apple's revenue and earnings, while a slower rebound could limit growth.
3. Late-Cycle iPhone 15 Shipments: The late-cycle iPhone 15 shipments will play a crucial role in Apple's Q4 2024 earnings. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have raised their estimate for iPhones shipped in the quarter to 55 million units, up from 52.5 million units previously and above the Street consensus of 50 million. This upward revision "more than offsets" expected weakness in Mac sales, the firm said. Strong iPhone 15 shipments could drive Apple's revenue and earnings growth, while slower-than-expected shipments could limit growth.
4. Apple's Stock Price Reaction: Given analysts' current expectations, Apple's stock price could react positively to the Q4 2024 earnings report if the company beats revenue and earnings estimates. However, if Apple falls short of expectations, the stock price could decline. Wall Street analysts have a generally bullish outlook on Apple, with a consensus price target on Visible Alpha of $240.87, only about 4% above Friday's close.


In conclusion, the iPhone 16's sales trajectory, its performance in China, and late-cycle iPhone 15 shipments are key factors that could influence Apple's Q4 2024 earnings. Investors should closely monitor these factors and Apple's earnings report on October 29, 2024, to gain insights into the company's performance and future prospects.