Apple iPhone Shipment Forecast to Decline in 2025 Due to Tariff, Competition Challenges: IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) expects global smartphone shipments to grow 0.6% YoY to 1.24 billion in 2025, driven by growth in the US and China. However, Apple's shipments are forecast to decline 1.9% due to competition from Huawei and economic slowdown. The US market is expected to grow 1.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2017, due to uncertainty and tariff-related price increases.

International Data Corporation (IDC) has revised its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2025, projecting a 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) growth to reach 1.24 billion units. This represents a significant slowdown compared to the 2.3% growth anticipated earlier in the year [1].

The primary drivers of growth are expected to be the U.S. and China markets. The U.S. market is forecast to grow by 1.9%, down from IDC's previous estimate of 3.3% in 2017, largely due to uncertainty and tariff-related price increases [1]. Meanwhile, China's smartphone market is anticipated to grow by 3%, driven by government subsidies [1].

However, Apple's shipments are forecast to decline by 1.9% due to increased competition from Huawei and an economic slowdown [2]. Despite this, Apple's Q1 2025 shipments into Europe (excluding Russia) grew by 10%, indicating strong end-user demand and the initial sales impact of the iPhone 16e [2].

Counterpoint Technology Market Research reported a 30% year-over-year increase in U.S. smartphone shipments in March 2025, driven by manufacturers rushing to bring new inventory into the country ahead of anticipated tariffs [1]. Canalys also noted that the U.S. smartphone market is expected to experience considerable volatility over the next two or three quarters due to uncertainty around tariffs and weakening consumer confidence [1].

The European smartphone market, excluding Russia, saw a 2% decline in Q1 2025, largely due to sluggish entry-level demand. Apple finished second in the ranking table, growing its shipments by 10% despite significant inventory levels of legacy iPhones [2].

References:
[1] https://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2025/idc-lowers-worldwide-smartphone-shipment-forecast-citing-uncertainty-and-tariffs/
[2] https://www.patentlyapple.com/2025/05/while-europes-smartphone-market-dropped-2-in-q1-2025-apple-delivered-growth-and-gained-market-share.html