¿Apple Inc. (AAPL) está sobrevalorado a pesar de su posición dominante en el mercado? Un análisis de valor intrínseco basado en el DCF

Apple Inc. (AAPL) has long been a bellwether of the global technology sector, commanding a dominant market position with its ecosystem of hardware, software, and services. Yet, as the stock trades at historic valuations, investors increasingly ask: Is Apple overvalued despite its robust financials and growth prospects? This article employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to assess Apple's intrinsic value, leveraging the latest financial disclosures and forward-looking guidance.

Free Cash Flow and Growth Projections: The Foundation of DCF

Apple's 2024 annual free cash flow (FCF) reached $108.8 billion, a 9.26% increase from 2023 according to Macrotrends. This figure, derived from its 10-K filing, reflects the company's ability to generate substantial liquidity from operations, even as it reinvests in innovation and returns value to shareholders. For context, Apple returned $29 billion to shareholders in Q4 2024 alone, driven by its $94.9 billion in quarterly revenue.

Looking ahead, Apple's 2025 investor day presentation signaled aggressive growth targets. The company projects 10–12% year-over-year revenue growth for the December quarter, fueled by double-digit iPhone sales growth and a rebound in the Greater China market. The Services segment, a key growth engine, is expected to expand at a similar pace, bolstered by Apple's expanding ecosystem and AI-driven product enhancements.

WACC and Discount Rate Considerations

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a critical input for DCF analysis. While Apple's 2024 10-K does not explicitly disclose its WACC, external analyses estimate it at 9.41–9.66% as of late 2025. This range, derived using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Apple's low beta (a measure of market risk), reflects the company's strong balance sheet and access to low-cost debt. A WACC of ~9.5% is a reasonable midpoint for this analysis.

DCF Calculation: Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price

Using Apple's 2024 FCF of $108.8 billion and assuming a 10–12% growth rate for the next year (aligned with its revenue guidance), we project FCF to reach $120.8 billion by 2026. Beyond this period, we apply a conservative 2% terminal growth rate, consistent with long-term GDP growth assumptions. Discounting these cash flows at 9.5% yields an intrinsic value of approximately $1.6 trillion for Apple's equity according to Macrotrends.

By comparison, Apple's market capitalization as of November 2025 stands at $3.1 trillion (based on a trailing 12-month average). This suggests a 56% premium over the intrinsic value calculated here, raising questions about overvaluation. However, this conclusion hinges on key assumptions:
1. Growth Sustainability: The DCF model assumes FCF growth aligns with revenue growth. If Apple's operating margins or capital efficiency deteriorate (e.g., due to higher R&D costs for AI or supply chain disruptions), the intrinsic value would decline.
2. WACC Sensitivity: A higher WACC (e.g., 10%) would reduce the intrinsic value by ~10%, further widening the gap between DCF estimates and the current market price.

Counterarguments: Why Apple Might Justify Its Premium

Critics of the DCF approach argue that Apple's intangible assets-brand strength, network effects, and a loyal customer base-are not fully captured in cash flow models. For instance, the iPhone 17's strong reception in China and the Services segment's resilience up 15% year-over-year in 2024 suggest Apple can sustain growth beyond the 2% terminal rate. Additionally, its $29 billion shareholder return in Q4 2024 according to SEC filings underscores its commitment to rewarding investors, which could justify a higher valuation multiple.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance Between Growth and Valuation

Apple's DCF-derived intrinsic value of $1.6 trillion implies the stock is overvalued at its current $3.1 trillion market cap, assuming conservative growth and discount rate assumptions. However, this analysis does not account for potential upside from AI integration, regulatory tailwinds, or a rebound in emerging markets. Investors must weigh these factors against the risks of margin compression and macroeconomic headwinds. For now, Apple's valuation appears stretched, but its dominant market position and innovation pipeline provide a buffer against near-term downside.