Apollo Global Falls 0.10% as Turnover Slips to 367th Despite Strong Q2 Earnings Outlook and 166.71% Strategy Gains

Apollo Global Management (APO) closed on July 31, 2025, with a 0.10% decline, trading at $144.60. The stock ranked 367th in trading volume, with $0.39 billion in turnover. The company is set to release Q2 2025 earnings on August 5, with consensus estimates pointing to a 12.8% year-over-year rise in earnings to $1.85 per share and a 8.4% increase in revenue to $1.01 billion. Analysts highlight that AUM growth, driven by volatile markets and inflows, is expected to offset higher expenses linked to team expansion and merger-related costs.

While APO’s AUM is projected to reach $812.1 billion in Q2, a 3.5% sequential increase, management and performance fees are forecast to rise by 3.1% and 3%, respectively. However, net capital solutions fees are expected to decline by 5.4%. The Zacks model suggests a low probability of beating estimates, citing a negative Earnings ESP of -0.36% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell). Historical performance shows APO has exceeded estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 3.53%.

Backtesting of a strategy purchasing the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day from 2022 to July 30, 2025, yielded a 166.71% return, outperforming the benchmark by 137.53%. The strategy’s success is attributed to capturing market momentum while managing risk, delivering consistent returns across varying market conditions.