API3/Tether (API3USDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-26

• API3USDT declined 10.4% over 24 hours, hitting a low of 0.7418 before a partial recovery.
• Volatility expanded, with a 15-minute range of 0.0162 (2.1%), reflecting heightened trading activity.
• Volume surged 4.7x above average during the early morning rebound, but failed to confirm a strong reversal.
• RSI hit oversold conditions near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Key support appears at 0.7450–0.7500, with 0.7550–0.7600 as likely resistance ahead.

The API3/Tether (API3USDT) pair opened at 0.7480 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.7782 and a low of 0.7418, and closed at 0.7602 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour notional volume totaled $1.23M, with total turnover of 411,610.57 units of API3. Price action was bearish for much of the session, before consolidating in a narrow range during the late morning.

Structure & Formations

A distinct bearish bias emerged in the early session, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming between 16:30 and 17:45 ET as price dropped 1.6%. Support levels were tested at 0.7500 and 0.7450, with the latter showing strong buying pressure. A short-lived bullish reversal occurred in the overnight hours, marked by a morning star-like formation as price rose from 0.7457 to 0.7581. However, a lack of follow-through buying has left the pair in a consolidation phase, with 0.7550–0.7600 as the next resistance cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed in a bearish alignment after 17:00 ET, reinforcing the downward move. The 20SMA has since risen into the 0.7550–0.7580 range, acting as dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear to be converging near the 0.7600–0.7650 region, which could serve as a key confluence area for near-term price action. Price is currently below both the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a bearish tilt in the intermediate-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the early morning as price rebounded, with the histogram showing a modest divergence from the 0.7450 support. However, the signal line remains above it, suggesting a lack of sustained momentum. RSI dropped to oversold territory (~30) during the low near 0.7418, offering a potential short-term bounce scenario. The indicator is now rising back into neutral territory (~45), but has not shown signs of entering overbought levels. This suggests caution before expecting a large-scale reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart widened significantly during the early decline, with price falling as low as 0.7418, well below the lower band. This expansion indicates heightened volatility. In the overnight hours, price climbed back into the middle band, showing some consolidation. The bands have since begun to contract, with price hovering near the middle band. A sustained move above the upper band would be a bullish signal, while a retest of the lower band could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning rebound, reaching 89,727.98 units in a single 15-minute candle as price moved from 0.7457 to 0.7581. This suggests some accumulation may be taking place near the 0.7450–0.7500 range. However, subsequent volume has declined, indicating a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover (volume × price) reached a 24-hour peak of $1.35M during the rebound, but has since settled into a lower range of $600–900K per candle. Price and volume appear to be in mild alignment in the short term, though with weak conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.7418 to 0.7581 swing on the 15-minute chart, price has reached the 61.8% level at ~0.7523, which has acted as a minor resistance. The 78.6% and 88.6% levels are at 0.7573 and 0.7618, respectively, with the latter aligning with recent resistance observed. On the daily chart, a retracement from the recent bearish move shows 0.7550 and 0.7610 as key 61.8% and 78.6% levels. These confluence areas could dictate the next directional move, particularly if volume increases at those levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying a reversal from oversold RSI conditions (RSI < 30) combined with a bullish engulfing pattern, with stop-loss placement at the recent low and take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level (e.g., 61.8% or 78.6%). Given API3USDT's recent behavior—RSI dipping into oversold territory and the formation of a morning star-like reversal—it aligns with the criteria of the strategy. A trade entered at the close of the bullish engulfing pattern (e.g., 0.7581) with a stop below 0.7450 and a target near 0.7600–0.7620 could be viable. However, the lack of sustained volume and weak follow-through suggests the trade is high-risk and should be monitored closely for confirmation.