Apellis Soared 15.63%, What’s Fueling This Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• Apellis (APLS) surged 15.63% intraday to $21.97, hitting a 52-week high of $41.94
• FDA approval for EMPAVELI in C3G/IC-MPGN and $300M royalty deal with Sobi drove momentum
• SYFOVRE demand grew 6% QoQ, net product revenue reached $151M in Q2 2025
Apellis delivered a seismic intraday rally amid landmark regulatory approvals and a transformative financial deal. The stock’s 15.63% surge reflects investor confidence in its dual-platform strategy, with SYFOVRE’s GA dominance and EMPAVELI’s rare disease expansion. With $370M in cash and a $275M Sobi payment secured, the biotech’s path to profitability now appears more defined.

FDA Approval and Royalty Deal Ignite Biotech Rally
Apellis’ 15.63% surge was catalyzed by two pivotal developments: (1) FDA approval of EMPAVELI for C3G/IC-MPGN, expanding its rare disease footprint, and (2) a $300M capped royalty purchase agreement with Sobi for ex-U.S. royalties. These events validated the company’s dual-platform strategy, with SYFOVRE maintaining 60% GA market share and EMPAVELI’s 97% PNH compliance rate underscoring product durability. The $275M upfront payment from Sobi, combined with $178M in Q2 revenues, signals improved cash flow visibility, alleviating investor concerns about sustainability.

Biotech Sector Volatile Amid AMGN’s Decline
While Apellis surged, the biotech sector remained mixed. Amgen (AMGN), the sector’s leader, fell 1.695%, reflecting broader market caution. Apellis’ outperformance highlights its unique position in complement-targeting therapies, with EMPAVELI and SYFOVRE dominating niche markets. Unlike AMGN’s diversified portfolio, Apellis’ focus on C3 inhibition and rare diseases has created a high-margin, high-growth narrative, differentiating it from peers.

Options and ETFs for Navigating Biotech Volatility
• MACD: 0.213 (bullish divergence), RSI: 44.67 (oversold), 200D MA: $24.69 (price below)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $20.74, Middle $19.18, Lower $17.61 (current price above upper band)
Top Options Contracts:
• APLS20250815C22: Call, $22 strike, 8/15 expiry, IV 60.14%, leverage ratio 20.29%, delta 0.5189, theta -0.0625, gamma 0.1444, turnover $51,724
• APLS20250919C21: Call, $21 strike, 9/19 expiry, IV 70.43%, leverage ratio 7.83%, delta 0.6243, theta -0.0308, gamma 0.0658, turnover $58,145
The APLS20250815C22 call offers a high leverage ratio (20.29%) and moderate delta (0.5189), ideal for capitalizing on short-term volatility. Its IV (60.14%) aligns with historical norms, while theta decay (-0.0625) suggests urgency to act before expiry. The APLS20250919C21 call, with a 70.43% IV and 0.6243 delta, balances gamma sensitivity (0.0658) with liquidity (turnover $58M), making it a safer long-term play. Payoff estimates: At 5% upside ($23.07), APLS20250815C22 yields $1.07/share; APLS20250919C21 yields $2.07/share. Aggressive bulls should consider APLS20250815C22 into a breakout above $22.50.

Backtest Apellis Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of APLS (iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF) after an intraday increase of 16% shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 48.35%, indicating almost half of the time the ETF has a positive return in the following three days, the 10-day win rate is slightly higher at 53.74%. However, the 30-day win rate is only 55.48%, suggesting that longer-term gains are less probable. The maximum return during the backtest was 2.99%, which occurred on day 56, indicating that while there is a good chance of positive returns, the overall performance is modest.

Apellis’ Breakout: Profit or Pause?
Apellis’ 15.63% surge reflects a pivotal inflection in its growth trajectory, driven by regulatory wins and strategic financing. While the 200D MA ($24.69) remains a critical resistance, the stock’s technicals suggest short-term momentum could persist. However, the long-term bearish trend (Kline pattern) and AMGN’s 1.7% decline caution against overexposure. Investors should monitor the $23.56 intraday high as a key level—breaking it could trigger a retest of the 52-week high. For now, the APLS20250815C22 call offers a high-reward leveraged play, but hedging with the APLS20250815P22 put is prudent. Action: Buy APLS20250815C22 into a $22.50 breakout, or short AMGN if the biotech sector weakens.