APA (APA) Up 47.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for APA (APA). Shares have added about 47.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is APA due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for APA Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

APA Corporation Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates Despite Weak Prices

APA Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 62 cents. The bottom line rose from the year-ago adjusted profit of 79 cents. The outperformance primarily reflects higher-than-expected production and lower costs, partly offset by a drop in commodity realizations.

Revenues of $2 billion were down 20.9% from the year-ago quarter’s sales but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3%.

Meanwhile, APA continues to reward its shareholders, having paid out $640 million in dividends and buybacks during the full year of 2025.

Production & Selling Prices

Production of oil and natural gas averaged 459,767 BOE/d, which comprised 70% liquids. The figure was down 5.8% from the year-ago quarter but surpassed our expectation of 445,960 BOE/d.

U.S. output (accounting for 61% of the total) fell 10.3% year over year to 281,051 BOE/d, but production from the company’s international operations increased 2.1% to 178,716 BOE/d. APA’s oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production was 320,257 barrels per day (Bbl/d). Natural gas output totaled 837,065 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d).

The average realized crude oil price during the fourth quarter was $61.03 per barrel, down 15.7% from the year-ago realization of $72.42. The number also came slightly below our projection of $61.10. The average realized natural gas price fell to $2.10 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) from $2.20 in the year-ago period and missed our estimate of $2.49.

Costs & Financial Position

APA’s fourth-quarter lease operating expenses totaled $354 million, down 25.3% from $474 million in the year-ago period. Moreover, a 71.7% drop in purchased oil/gas costs meant that total operating expenses decreased nearly 26% from the corresponding period of 2024 to $1.5 billion. Our model had put the figure largely in line with the reported result.

During the quarter under review, APA generated $808 million of cash from operating activities while it incurred $434 million in upstream capital expenditures. The company reported an adjusted operating cash flow of $1 billion. It also registered a free cash flow of $425 million compared to $420 million a year ago.

As of Dec. 31, APA had approximately $516 million in cash and cash equivalents and $4.3 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization of 41.3%.

Guidance

APA expects production to average 440,000 BOE/d in first-quarter 2026 and 436000 BOE/d in 2026 (down more than 6% year over year). Of this, oil volumes are likely to be 225,000 Bbl/d during the January-March period and 217,000 Bbl/d for the full year. The company pegged its upstream capital expenditure for the year at around $2.1 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a flat trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 16.92% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, APA has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

APA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

APA is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry. Over the past month, Viper Energy Partners (VNOM), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.

Viper Energy reported revenues of $435 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +90.2%. EPS of $0.31 for the same period compares with $0.42 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Viper Energy is expected to post earnings of $0.34 per share, indicating a change of -37% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +12% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Viper Energy. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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