Antimony's Golden Age: Why Campine NV is Poised for Explosive Growth in 2025

In an era of global supply chain turbulence, few companies are better positioned to capitalize on the antimony boom than Campine NV (CAMP.BR). As demand for this critical industrial metal surges to unprecedented heights—driven by EV battery production, fire retardants, and China's export restrictions—the Belgian materials giant is turning scarcity into profit. Here's why investors should act now.

The Antimony Opportunity: A Supply Chain Masterstroke

Antimony, a key component in flame-retardant materials and battery alloys, is experiencing a supply crunch of historic proportions. Prices for antimony metal have soared to $50,000/ton by early 2025, up 25% from year-end 2024, as China's export quotas and logistical bottlenecks tighten global supplies. For Campine, this is not a crisis but a strategic windfall.

Why Campine Stands Out:
- Supply Chain Resilience: By slashing reliance on Chinese imports to below 5% (from 80% in 2017), Campine insulated itself from Beijing's export controls. Its vertically integrated model—from mining in Alaska to recycling in Europe—ensures stable raw material access.
- Recycling Dominance: Proprietary antimony recovery technology now accounts for 15% of its output, reducing costs and carbon footprints while boosting margins. This tech also allows Campine to capitalize on battery scrap surpluses, a growing waste stream.
- Geopolitical Tailwinds: Europe's push for energy security and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's EV subsidies are driving antimony demand, with Campine's specialty chemicals division (antimony trioxide) set to benefit most.

Financials: A Profit Engine Ignited

Campine's 2024 results laid the groundwork for 2025's breakout:
- Turnover hit €365.2 million (+13% vs. 2023), fueled by a 47% jump in Specialty Chemicals revenue.
- EBITDA soared to €41.7 million (+55% YoY), with margins expanding thanks to soaring antimony prices and cost discipline.
- Net profit nearly doubled to €22.3 million, enabling a 50% dividend hike to €4.50/share—a clear signal of confidence.

2025 Outlook:
- The French Escaudoeuvres plant, restarted post-fire in early 2025, adds 10% lead alloy capacity, boosting Circular Metals margins.
- The Montana smelter expansion (due online Q4 2025) will increase antimony throughput by 600%, reducing reliance on external feedstock and locking in long-term profitability.
- Analysts project 2025 EBITDA could hit €55 million, a 32% leap from 2024, as antimony prices stay elevated and recycling efficiencies scale.

Risks? Yes—but the Upside Outweighs Them

Critics point to antimony supply bottlenecks and European automotive sector softness (hurting recycled plastics demand). Yet Campine's diversified strategy mitigates these risks:
- Diversified Revenue Streams: While recycled plastics face headwinds, the high-margin antimony trioxide business is booming.
- Strong Balance Sheet: A 55% equity ratio and $6.75M annual dividend give Campine flexibility to invest in growth without dilution.

Why Buy Now? The Technicals and Timing

Campine's shares have already risen 160% since early 2023, but the best gains may lie ahead. At a current valuation of $297M (post-Q1 2025), the stock trades at just 12x projected 2025 EBITDA—a discount to peers. With antimony prices near record highs and supply constraints unlikely to ease, this is a buy-and-hold opportunity for the next 12–18 months.

Conclusion: A Rare Combination of Catalysts

Campine NV is not just another materials company—it's a supply chain disruptor leveraging antimony's scarcity to build a $1B+ enterprise. With China's export policies tightening, EV demand surging, and its own smelter expansion nearing completion, this is the moment to act.

Investment Thesis:
- Buy: Target price of €220/share by end-2025 (40% upside from current levels).
- Hold: For long-term exposure to antimony's structural boom.

Don't miss the train. Antimony's golden age is here—and Campine is the engine.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.