Anticipando la reducción de la tasa de interés de diciembre de la Fed: puntos de entrada estratégicos en sectores de crecimiento

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting has become a focal point for investors, with markets pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut to bring the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. This decision, driven by a cooling labor market and recessionary concerns, marks a pivotal moment for growth sectors, particularly tech and high-beta equities. Historically, rate cuts have acted as a tailwind for these assets, and the current environment-marked by AI-driven innovation and fiscal stimulus-suggests a compelling case for strategic positioning ahead of the Fed's move.

The Fed's Dilemma: Cautious Optimism Amid Division

The Fed faces a delicate balancing act. While inflation remains above the 2% target, the labor market's slowdown and the government shutdown's data blackout have forced a precautionary approach. New York Fed President John Williams, a key ally of Chair Jerome Powell, has signaled support for further cuts, reinforcing market expectations. However, internal divisions persist, with some officials advocating for a pause to monitor inflation. This uncertainty underscores the importance of agility in portfolio construction, as the Fed's decision could ripple across global central banks, including the ECB and BoE.

Tech and High-Beta Equities: A Historical Tailwind

Historical data reveals a consistent pattern: Fed rate cuts in non-recessionary environments have historically delivered strong returns for tech and high-beta stocks. For instance, the S&P 500 has averaged 18% 12-month returns following such cuts, with 100% positive performance. In 2025, this dynamic has already materialized. The Nasdaq Composite surged in early November on rate cut expectations, reflecting investor optimism toward high-growth assets. Analysts project this trend to continue into 2026, as the Fed's easing cycle supports economic expansion and corporate earnings.

The current environment further amplifies these tailwinds. Strong GDP growth, low unemployment, and AI innovation are creating a "perfect storm" for high-beta equities. For example, AI infrastructure demand is driving above-market performance in semiconductors and cloud computing, while fiscal stimulus is boosting corporate cash flows.

Strategic Entry Points: Sectors and Stocks to Watch

With the Fed's December cut on the horizon, investors should focus on sectors and stocks poised to benefit from lower borrowing costs and heightened risk appetite.

1. AI-Driven Software and Internet Services

The integration of AI into enterprise operations is a key growth driver. Companies like Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Workday (WDAY) are leading the charge. Palantir reported 27.16% revenue growth and 29.98% earnings growth in 2025, while Workday delivered 11.18% revenue growth and 32.18% earnings growth. Both stocks have attracted strong fund flows, reflecting their role in enabling AI adoption across industries.

Shopify (SHOP) is another standout, with strategic AI partnerships and Q4 revenue growth projections in the mid-20s. Its collaboration with Liquid AI to enhance platform capabilities positions it to capitalize on the e-commerce AI boom.

2. High-Growth International Tech Firms

While U.S. tech stocks dominate the spotlight, international opportunities are emerging. Beijing Vastdata Technology and Shennan Circuit are gaining traction in China's tech sector, with 41.5% and 26.7% year-over-year revenue growth, respectively. These firms are leveraging AI and domestic demand to offset global macroeconomic headwinds.

3. AI-First Innovators

Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA) exemplifies the AI-first approach. The company raised its Q4 2025 revenue guidance to 20–21% and plans to expand its Athena AI platform. With a projected 34% annual growth rate for 2026, Zeta is a high-conviction play for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven advertising tech.

Valuation Metrics and Fund Flows: A Cautionary Note

Despite the bullish case, valuations remain a concern. Many high-beta tech stocks trade at elevated multiples, driven by speculative bets on AI's long-term potential. For instance, Palantir and Zeta Global have seen mixed profitability, with Zeta still reporting net losses despite revenue growth. However, the Fed's rate cut could provide a liquidity buffer, allowing investors to absorb near-term volatility while capitalizing on long-term re-rating potential.

As of December 2025, inflows into tech ETFs and individual stocks like Shopify and Workday have accelerated, reflecting institutional and retail confidence in the sector's resilience.

Conclusion: Positioning for a Re-Rating

The Fed's December rate cut is not just a monetary policy event-it's a catalyst for market re-rating in growth sectors. By aligning portfolios with AI-driven tech stocks, high-beta equities, and international innovators, investors can position themselves to benefit from the Fed's easing cycle and the broader shift toward AI-centric economies. While caution is warranted given valuation risks, the combination of falling rates, strong earnings momentum, and technological tailwinds makes this a compelling inflection point for strategic entry.