Analyst Updates XRP Price Prediction: Why $16 Is Still On The Table

XRP saw a significant price increase in early 2026, rising 15% in a week and trading above $2.16. The rally was driven by strong ETF inflows and improved institutional demand. XRP's market capitalization increased by more than $18 billion in seven days, reaching $131.28 billion. Momentum indicators such as the MACD and RSI turned positive, supporting the upward trend.

The price surge reflects a combination of factors. U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted $43.16 million in weekly inflows, representing about 6.9% of XRP's circulating supply. Ripple's first escrow of 2026 released 300 million tokens into circulation, coinciding with Japan's tax reforms reducing crypto taxes and approving its first XRP ETF. The departure of SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw also removed a key regulatory obstacle.

Markets responded with a shift in capital flows. XRP ETFs saw $64 million in inflows in a single week, outperforming other altcoins like Solana. XRP's price and market dynamics showed a divergence, with prices consolidating near $1.87 while on-chain metrics indicated strong adoption and reduced exchange supply.

Why Did This Happen?

XRP's price surge is attributed to increased institutional adoption and ETF demand. Exchange-held XRP balances dropped to a seven-year low of 1.6 billion tokens, signaling strong accumulation by institutional investors. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) also saw nearly 18% growth in real-world asset (RWA) activity, reinforcing XRP's role in tokenized finance.

The launch of the Bitwise XRP ETF and other U.S. spot XRP ETFs played a key role. The Bitwise ETF saw $107 million in inflows on its first day, despite broader crypto market weakness. Analysts like Zach Rector predict that ETFs could hold 3–5 billion XRP by the end of 2026, representing 3%–5% of the total supply.

How Did Markets Respond?

XRP's price action showed signs of consolidation and potential for further gains. The token traded around $2.10, reclaiming key Fibonacci and pivot levels. Derivatives data highlighted liquidity concentrations between $2.50 and $3.20, suggesting a potential breakout zone.

The broader market context also favored XRP. Outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs indicated a shift in investor preferences toward altcoins. Analysts like ChartNerd argue that XRP is in a favorable position to break out of its consolidation phase, with a potential target of $18–$22.

What Are Analysts Watching?

Analysts are closely monitoring key price levels and technical patterns. XRP's ability to break above the $2.20 level could confirm a stronger bullish outlook. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart remains a key concern for bearish analysts.

Institutional participation and supply dynamics are also under scrutiny. The continued decline in exchange-held XRP and the potential for ETFs to hold billions of tokens could reduce selling pressure and support higher prices.

Standard Chartered and other major institutions have set long-term price targets, with Geoffrey Kendrick predicting XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028. These projections highlight the growing confidence in XRP's long-term potential despite short-term volatility.