AMPX Soars 12.25% on $35M UAS Order—Can This Battery Innovator Sustain the Momentum?

Summary
• Amprius Technologies (AMPX) surges 12.25% to $10.26, hitting its 52-week high of $10.41
• $35M repeat order from UAS manufacturer fuels optimism
• Turnover jumps 13.56% as short-term bullish indicators align

Amprius Technologies (AMPX) is riding a wave of momentum, with its stock surging 12.25% intraday to $10.26 amid a $35 million repeat order for SiCore® cells. The surge, driven by accelerating demand in the UAS market, has pushed the stock to its 52-week high. With turnover at 13.56% and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, investors are weighing whether this is a breakout moment for the battery innovator.

SiCore® Cells Power Record $35M UAS Order
Amprius Technologies’ 12.25% intraday surge is directly tied to its announcement of a $35 million repeat order for SiCore® cells from a leading UAS manufacturer. This follows a $15 million order in February 2025, underscoring the company’s growing traction in the high-energy-density battery market. The SiCore® cells, engineered for extended flight times and mission ranges, are now being produced at scale via Amprius’ global contract manufacturing network, which exceeds 1.8 GWh of secured capacity. CEO Dr. Kang Sun emphasized the order as a validation of Amprius’ leadership in silicon anode technology, positioning the company to capture a larger share of the $48.3 billion UAS market by 2030.

Battery Sector Rally Gains Steam as TSLA Gains 1.34%
The broader battery sector is showing mixed momentum, with Tesla (TSLA) rising 1.34% on the day. While Amprius’ 12.25% surge dwarfs Tesla’s gain, both stocks are benefiting from renewed interest in energy storage solutions for electric vehicles and drones. However, Amprius’ focus on silicon anode technology and its direct ties to the UAS market—projected to grow at 10.5% CAGR—position it as a more speculative play compared to Tesla’s established EV dominance. The sector’s long-term outlook remains bullish, but Amprius’ volatility and high leverage make it a riskier bet.

AMPX20251017C10 and AMPX20251017C11: High-Leverage Bets on Short-Term Bullish Momentum
• MACD: 0.3396 (bullish crossover), Signal Line: 0.1906, Histogram: 0.1490 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 64.36 (neutral to overbought)
• 200D MA: $3.96 (far below current price), 30D MA: $7.56 (support level)
• Bollinger Bands: $6.26 (lower band), $8.72 (upper band)

Amprius’ technicals suggest a continuation of its short-term bullish trend, with key resistance at $10.41 (52-week high) and support at $7.08 (30D support). The stock’s 13.56% turnover rate and 64.36 RSI indicate strong near-term demand but caution against overbought conditions. For options traders, the AMPX20251017C10 and AMPX20251017C11 contracts stand out due to their high leverage ratios (7.48% and 11.47%) and moderate deltas (0.605 and 0.471), offering amplified exposure to a potential breakout. Both options also exhibit high implied volatility (101.68% and 96.84%) and strong liquidity (turnover of $269,579 and $56,238), making them ideal for short-term directional bets.

AMPX20251017C10 (Call, $10 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
• IV: 101.68% (high volatility)
• Delta: 0.605 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
• Theta: -0.0253 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1259 (high sensitivity to price acceleration)
• Turnover: $269,579 (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 7.48% (amplified exposure)
• Price Change Ratio: 92.86% (strong momentum)
This contract is ideal for capitalizing on a potential push above $10.41, with a 5% upside scenario (to $10.77) yielding a payoff of $0.77 per share. The high gamma and moderate delta make it responsive to sharp price moves.

AMPX20251017C11 (Call, $11 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
• IV: 96.84% (moderate volatility)
• Delta: 0.471 (balanced sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0239 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1366 (high sensitivity to acceleration)
• Turnover: $56,238 (liquid)
• Leverage Ratio: 11.47% (high amplification)
• Price Change Ratio: 111.11% (strong momentum)
This option offers a higher-risk, higher-reward setup for a breakout above $11. A 5% upside (to $10.77) would result in a $0.00 payoff, but a 10% move (to $11.29) would yield $0.29 per share. The high gamma and leverage ratio make it a compelling play for aggressive bulls.

Aggressive bulls may consider AMPX20251017C11 into a push above $10.41.

Backtest Amprius Technologies Stock Performance
Below is an interactive event-study panel summarising how AMPX has behaved after each ≥ 12 % intraday surge since 2022. Key take-aways follow the chart.Main observations1. Frequency & sample size • 40 trading days met the ≥ 12 %–surge criterion between Jan-2022 and today.2. Post-event drift (close-to-close returns vs. benchmark) • Day +1: +0.31 % (win-rate 42 %) ⇒ no statistically reliable edge. • Day +5: +3.17 % (win-rate 53 %), still insignificant. • Day +10: +4.45 % (win-rate 58 %), not significant at conventional levels. • Day +20: +10.71 % outperformance, but large dispersion keeps it statistically weak.3. Optimal holding window • Highest median excess return occurs around trading day +20 (~1 month), yet confidence remains low, implying the pattern is not robust.4. Risk considerations • Short-term pullbacks are common (win-rate dips to ~40 % on several early days). • Volatility is high; the strategy would have faced drawdowns exceeding 15 % on multiple occasions.In sum, for AMPX a single-factor strategy that buys immediately after a ≥ 12 % surge has not delivered a statistically significant or consistent edge during 2022-2025. Incorporating additional filters (e.g., volume spikes, trend context, or fundamental catalysts) is advisable before deploying capital.

AMPX’s $10.41 52-Week High is a Critical Juncture—Act Now or Miss the Wave
Amprius Technologies’ 12.25% surge on a $35 million UAS order has positioned it at a pivotal moment. The stock’s alignment with bullish technical indicators and high-liquidity options like AMPX20251017C10 and AMPX20251017C11 suggests a strong case for continuation of its upward trajectory. However, the 64.36 RSI and 13.56% turnover rate signal caution against overbought conditions. Investors should monitor the $10.41 52-week high and $7.08 support level, with Tesla’s 1.34% gain in the battery sector offering a broader context. For those seeking amplified exposure, the selected options provide a high-leverage path to capitalize on Amprius’ momentum—but only if $10.41 holds.