Amgen (AMGN) Dips Slightly Amid Pricing Strategy Uncertainty and Earnings Outlook

Summary
• Amgen (AMGN) trades at $293.79, down 0.11% intraday
• Intraday range spans $290.21 to $295.79, reflecting mixed momentum
• Options activity surges with 20 contracts traded, highlighting speculative interest
• Sector peers like Regeneron (REGN) also underperform, signaling biotech sector jitters

Amgen’s intraday decline, though modest, reflects broader uncertainty ahead of its November 4 earnings report and ongoing pricing pressures for its flagship drug Repatha. With a 52-week range of $253.3 to $335.88, the stock remains within a long-term consolidation pattern but faces near-term technical resistance at key moving averages.

Repatha Pricing Strategy and Earnings Outlook Weigh on Sentiment
Amgen’s slight intraday decline aligns with recent news of a 60% price cut for its cholesterol drug Repatha, announced in response to political pressure. While the move aims to boost accessibility, it raises concerns about margin compression. Additionally, the company’s upcoming earnings report on November 4, where EPS is forecast to drop 10.22%, has dampened investor optimism. These factors, combined with broader biotech sector volatility, have created a cautious trading environment.

Biotech Sector Volatility as Regeneron (REGN) Trails Amgen
The biotech sector remains under pressure, with Regeneron (REGN) down 0.98% intraday. Both Amgen and Regeneron face headwinds from pricing pressures and regulatory scrutiny, though Amgen’s decline is more muted. The sector’s underperformance reflects investor caution ahead of potential Medicare drug price negotiations and earnings season.

Options and ETF Plays for Biotech Volatility
• MACD: 1.95 (bullish divergence), Signal Line: -0.698 (bearish crossover)
• RSI: 66.95 (neutral, approaching overbought)
• Bollinger Bands: 299.88 (upper), 282.07 (middle), 264.25 (lower)
• 200D MA: 288.27 (below current price)

Amgen’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias within a long-term range. Key support lies at the 200D MA ($288.27) and Bollinger middle band ($282.07), while resistance is at $295.79 (intraday high). The 200D MA and RSI neutrality indicate a potential consolidation phase ahead. Given the sector’s volatility, options with moderate leverage and high gamma offer strategic entry points.

Top Option 1: AMGN20251017P292.5
• Put Option: Strike $292.5, Expiry 2025-10-17
• IV: 24.17% (moderate), Leverage: 71.73%, Delta: -0.436 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.0837 (moderate time decay), Gamma: 0.0319 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: 10,106
• IV indicates reasonable volatility, Leverage amplifies downside potential, Gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings. This put option is ideal for capitalizing on a potential pullback below $292.5, with high liquidity for entry/exit.
Payoff Calculation: At a 5% downside (ST = $279.10), payoff = max(0, $292.5 - $279.10) = $13.40 per share.

Top Option 2: AMGN20251017C295
• Call Option: Strike $295, Expiry 2025-10-17
• IV: 26.25% (moderate), Leverage: 59.30%, Delta: 0.485 (moderate sensitivity), Theta: -0.3588 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0297 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: 10,969
• IV supports a balanced risk-reward, Leverage enhances upside, Theta suggests urgency for a near-term move. This call is suited for a breakout above $295, leveraging high liquidity and moderate gamma for directional bets.
Payoff Calculation: At a 5% upside (ST = $308.43), payoff = max(0, $308.43 - $295) = $13.43 per share.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider AMGN20251017C295 into a breakout above $295, while cautious bears should eye AMGN20251017P292.5 for a pullback below $292.5.

Backtest Amgen Stock Performance
To run a statistically meaningful event study we need to be very clear about how the “-0.1 % intraday plunge” is defined.1. Is the plunge measured from: • the day’s opening price to its intraday low, • or from the previous close to the intraday low?2. A 0.1 % drop (1 ‰) is extremely small and would be triggered on almost every trading day. • Did you perhaps intend a -10 % plunge (i.e., a 10 % drop), or another threshold such as -3 % or -5 %?3. Intraday back-tests require minute-level data; with our current tool set we will approximate an “intraday plunge day” using daily OHLC data—marking a day as an event if its daily low price is at least the specified percentage below the previous close (or the same-day open, depending on your answer to 1).Please let me know your preferred definition (questions 1 & 2) so I can pull the data and run the event back-test from 2022-01-01 to today for AMGN.

Position for Biotech Volatility: Watch $292.5 Support and Earnings Catalyst
Amgen’s intraday decline, while minor, signals a potential inflection point as the stock approaches key technical levels. The 200D MA and Bollinger middle band at $288.27 offer critical support, while the 2025-10-17 options expiry and November 4 earnings report present catalysts for directional moves. Investors should monitor the sector leader Regeneron (REGN, -0.98%) for broader biotech sentiment. A breakdown below $292.5 could trigger a retest of the 200D MA, making the AMGN20251017P292.5 put a strategic hedge. Conversely, a breakout above $295.79 (intraday high) would validate bullish momentum. Act now: Position for volatility with the highlighted options or target the 200D MA as a key level to define the next phase of Amgen’s trajectory.