La cotización de la plata de América baja un 13% en medio de incrementos de márgenes y de turbulencias del sector: ¿qué espera como próxima opción el minero de plata?

Summary
• Americas Gold (USAS) tumbles 13% intraday to $5.375, a sharp reversal from its 52-week high of $6.24
• CME margin hikes on silver and gold futures trigger profit-taking, dragging down mining equities
• Analysts remain bullish on 2026, but short-term volatility intensifies as China eyes export restrictions

The plunge in Americas Gold’s stock price on December 29, 2025, reflects a broader selloff in precious metals driven by regulatory shifts and market corrections. With the CME raising margin requirements for silver and gold futures, leveraged traders are forced to offload positions, amplifying downward pressure. The stock’s intraday range of $5.36 to $5.90 underscores the sharpness of the move, while the sector’s mixed performance—led by Newmont’s -5.79% decline—highlights the fragility of investor sentiment ahead of 2026.

Margin Hikes and Profit-Taking Trigger Precipitous Drop
The 13% intraday collapse in Americas Gold’s stock price is directly tied to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s decision to raise margin requirements for gold and silver futures. This move, aimed at mitigating risk during a period of extreme price volatility, forced leveraged traders to either inject additional capital or liquidate positions. Silver, which had surged nearly 150% year-to-date, became a focal point as industrial demand and speculative fervor collided. The CME’s action exacerbated profit-taking, with silver futures plummeting 8% and gold futures falling 5%. For Americas Gold, the selloff in the underlying metals amplified existing concerns about its capital-intensive expansion and 2026 inflection-point narrative, triggering a flight to safety.

Precious Metals Sector Reels as Newmont Leads Decline
The Precious Metals sector mirrored Americas Gold’s turmoil, with Newmont (NEM) falling 5.79% and other miners like Silver X (AGXPF) and Western Copper and Gold (WRN) also underperforming. The sector’s struggles stem from a combination of margin-driven liquidations and fears of China’s impending silver export restrictions. While gold and silver remain in multi-year bull markets, the sharp correction has exposed vulnerabilities in leveraged positions and speculative bets. For Americas Gold, the sector’s weakness compounds its own operational challenges, including a $15.7M Q3 loss and a cash cost per silver ounce of $24.11, which now appear more precarious against a backdrop of falling metal prices.

Navigating Volatility: ETFs and Options for a Bearish Turn
• 200-day average: 2.15 (far below current price)
• RSI: 79.63 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 0.456 (bullish but weakening)
• Bollinger Bands: 6.42 (upper), 5.24 (middle), 4.06 (lower) — price near lower band
• Support/Resistance: 5.82–5.87 (30D), 0.53–0.65 (200D)

The technical setup suggests a short-term bearish bias, with RSI overbought and price near the lower Bollinger Band. The 200-day average at $2.15 indicates a long-term downtrend, but near-term volatility remains high. For traders, the key levels to watch are the 5.82 support and the 4.06 lower band. A break below 5.36 could accelerate the decline, while a rebound above 5.90 might signal a temporary bounce. Given the sector’s fragility and the CME’s margin hikes, a defensive approach is warranted.

Top Options Contracts:
• USAS20260116P5 (Put):
- Strike Price: $5
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 81.92% (elevated, reflecting volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 24.48% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.3079 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0052 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3495 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 1,332 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (ST = $5.10): $0.10 (max(0, 5 - 5.10) = $0.10)
- Why: High gamma and IV make this put ideal for a sharp drop, while moderate delta balances risk.

• USAS20260116C6 (Call):
- Strike Price: $6
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 30.00% (reasonable)
- Leverage Ratio: 24.48% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.06498 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00197 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.3439 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,330 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Downside (ST = $5.10): $0 (max(0, 5.10 - 6) = $0)
- Why: High gamma and low delta make this call a speculative play for a rebound, though downside risk is significant.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bears should prioritize USAS20260116P5 for a 5% downside scenario. If the stock breaks below 5.36, this put could offer outsized returns. For bulls, USAS20260116C6 is a high-risk, high-reward bet on a rebound above 5.90.

Backtest Americas Gold Stock Performance
The backtest of USAS's performance after a -13% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 49.90%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.56%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.67%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 17.56%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that USAS has the potential for recovery and even exceed pre-plunge levels.

2026 Inflection Point at Risk: Watch for 5.36 Breakdown
The 13% intraday plunge in Americas Gold underscores the fragility of its 2026 inflection-point narrative amid sector-wide turbulence. While the company’s strategic pivot to high-grade silver and antimony production remains compelling, the immediate outlook is clouded by margin-driven selloffs and China’s looming export restrictions. Technically, a breakdown below 5.36 could trigger a test of the 4.06 lower Bollinger Band, while a rebound above 5.90 might signal a temporary reprieve. Investors should closely monitor Newmont’s -5.79% decline as a sector barometer. For now, defensive positioning and short-term options like USAS20260116P5 offer the best hedge against near-term volatility. Watch for 5.36 breakdown or regulatory reaction.