American Homes 4 Rent Q4 2024: Contradictions in Rent Growth, Lease Expectations, and Bad Debt Trends

These are the key contradictions discussed in American Homes 4 Rent's latest 2024Q4 earnings call, specifically including: Rent Growth and Market Pressure, Renewal and New Lease Expectations, Bad Debt Trends and Processing Delays, and Property Tax Growth Expectations:



Occupancy and Rent Growth:
- The company reported an occupancy rate of low 96% as the expected normalized long-term run rate for the portfolio.
- The growth was driven by strong leasing momentum in January and strategic initiatives to optimize revenue and strengthen occupancy, particularly during the fourth quarter.

Development and Investment Strategy:
- AMH plans to deliver approximately 2,300 homes in 2025, with expectations of same-home core revenue growth of 3.5%.
- This strategy is supported by a vertically integrated development program and a focus on acquisitions that align with their disciplined buybox.

Guidance for Financial Metrics:
- The company expects full-year core FFO per share growth of 3.4%, with core revenue growth of 3.5% and core property operating expense growth of 4%.
- These figures are driven by consistent execution and strategic growth programs, including stabilization of new developments and efficient expense controls.

Property Tax and Expense Management:
- AMH anticipates property tax growth in the mid-4% area, with property operating expense growth at mid-3% driven by successful renewal campaigns and tight expense controls.
- The moderation in property taxes is due to favorable year-end information received from several states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia.