La compañía de chips AMD sube 6,86% por las altas apuestas en la reunión de China y las políticas de cambio de Trump: ¿Qué sigue para el gigante de las tarjetas de chips?

Summary
• AMD shares jumped 6.86% intraday to $214.85, driven by CEO Lisa Su’s high-profile meeting with China’s Commerce Minister.
• Trump’s approval of Nvidia H200 GPU sales to China signals potential policy easing for U.S. chipmakers.
• AMD’s 10-year stock surge of 8,710% underscores its AI-driven transformation under Lisa Su.
• Intraday range of $204.30–$215.17 highlights volatile positioning ahead of key policy decisions.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is surging on a pivotal day of geopolitical and sector-specific developments. The stock’s 6.86% rally follows a strategic meeting between CEO Lisa Su and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, alongside President Trump’s announcement of potential AI chip export policy shifts. With AMD’s 52-week high at $267.08 and a dynamic P/E of 92.89, the stock’s trajectory hinges on regulatory clarity and China’s role in its AI ambitions.

China Policy Uncertainty and Trump’s AI Export Shifts Ignite AMD’s 6.86% Surge
AMD’s explosive 6.86% intraday gain stems from a dual catalyst: CEO Lisa Su’s meeting with China’s Commerce Minister and President Trump’s endorsement of relaxed AI chip export policies. The Trump administration’s approval of Nvidia’s H200 GPU sales to China, with implied support for AMD and Intel, has reignited optimism about access to China’s $1.2 trillion AI market. While no financial details were disclosed in the Su-Wang meeting, the broader policy shift signals a potential thaw in U.S.-China tech tensions. This aligns with AMD’s strategic pivot to AI, where China’s data center demand could offset U.S. regulatory headwinds.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Intel (INTC) Climbs 3.26%
The semiconductor sector is broadly participating in the rally, with Intel (INTC) up 3.26% as investors anticipate similar policy benefits. AMD’s 6.86% surge outpaces the sector’s average, reflecting its stronger AI exposure and leadership in high-performance computing. Intel’s recent $2 billion Arizona fab investment and Trump’s emphasis on domestic manufacturing also bolster sector sentiment. However, AMD’s China-focused AI strategy and higher growth multiples (92.89 P/E) position it as a more speculative play compared to Intel’s capital-intensive but stable trajectory.

Options and ETF Playbook: AMD’s Volatility Offers High-Leverage Opportunities
• MACD: -5.92 (bearish divergence), RSI: 32.11 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $198.51–$227.65 (wide range).
• 200D MA: $158.03 (far below current price), 30D MA: $222.08 (near-term resistance).
• Gamma: 0.0342 (high sensitivity to price swings), Theta: -0.812 (rapid time decay).

AMD’s technicals suggest a volatile but structurally bullish setup. The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $76.48 but remains 20% below its 2025 peak. Key support at $204.30 (intraday low) and resistance at $215.18 (intraday high) define a tight trading range. The RSI at 32.11 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram’s -1.68 suggests bearish momentum. Traders should monitor a break above $215.18 for a potential 52-week high retest.

Top Options Picks:
• AMD20251226C215 (Call, $215 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 36.73% (moderate), Leverage: 48.70%, Delta: 0.493, Theta: -0.812, Gamma: 0.0342, Turnover: $3.5M.
- Payoff: At a 5% upside (target $225.64), payoff = max(0, $225.64 - $215) = $10.64/share. High leverage and gamma make this ideal for a short-term bullish breakout.
• AMD20251226C217.5 (Call, $217.5 strike, 12/26 expiry):
- IV: 36.67% (moderate), Leverage: 64.55%, Delta: 0.409, Theta: -0.717, Gamma: 0.0334, Turnover: $1.2M.
- Payoff: At $225.64, payoff = max(0, $225.64 - $217.5) = $8.14/share. Aggressive bulls may target this for a 64.55% leverage play if AMD breaks $217.5.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider AMD20251226C215 into a breakout above $215.18. Conservative traders should watch for a pullback to $204.30 support before initiating longs.

Backtest Advanced Micro Devices Stock Performance
The backtest of AMD's performance after a 7% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.51%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.14%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.14%, indicating that the stock tends to perform well in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.43%, which occurred on day 58 after the surge, suggesting that there is potential for continued positive movement in the stock.

AMD’s 6.86% Rally: A High-Conviction Trade Amid Policy Uncertainty
AMD’s 6.86% surge reflects a pivotal inflection point driven by China policy optimism and Trump’s AI export shift. While the stock remains 20% below its 2025 peak, the RSI at 32.11 and oversold conditions suggest a potential rebound. Investors should monitor a break above $215.18 for a retest of the 52-week high and a breakdown below $204.30 for a deeper correction. Intel (INTC)’s 3.26% gain underscores sector-wide optimism, but AMD’s China-focused AI strategy and high leverage options (e.g., AMD20251226C215) offer sharper directional exposure. Watch for $215.18 breakout or policy clarity on China sales.