AMD Options Signal Bullish Momentum: Target $230 Calls as China AI Catalyst Kicks In

• Options frenzy at $230 strike: 9,938 open interest in 12/12 calls, 14,741 in 12/19 calls
• Whale alert: $524k call sweep at $270 strike and $315k at $195 strike in recent block trades
• RSI at 38.47 near oversold territory while price hovers above 200D MA ($153.66)

Here’s the deal: AMD’s options market is screaming bullish while technicals hint at a breakout. With China AI export rumors heating up and call buying spiking at key strikes, this stock is primed for a directional move—but timing is everything.

Options Imbalance and Whale Moves Signal Strategic Bullishness

Let’s start with the numbers: 12/19 calls at $230 ($AMD20251219C230) have 14,741 open interest—nearly double the nearest put counterpart. That’s not random. Meanwhile, the $165 put ($AMD20251219P165) has 17,089 open interest, showing deep downside protection bets. But here’s the kicker: block trades show whales buying $270 calls and $195 calls in October, suggesting they’ve been stacking premium for months.

The MACD (-3.81) and RSI (38.47) tell a similar story. Price is bouncing off the 200D MA like a rubber ball, and the 30D MA ($234.34) still looms as resistance. If the 12/19 $230 call ($AMD20251219C230) breaks above $224.84 intraday high, watch the 200D MA crumble like a house of cards.

China AI Policy Shifts Validate Options Bets

Remember that 2% pop after Nvidia’s H200 approval? Now imagine AMD’s MI300 getting the same green light. The Commerce Department’s decision isn’t just hypothetical—it’s the spark that could ignite those $270 and $320 ($AMD20251219C320) call positions. Analysts aren’t just hopeful: Morgan Stanley’s $300 target isn’t a stretch when you consider cloud partnerships in the works.

But here’s the rub: margin pressures from 25% export fees could delay euphoria. That’s why those $190 puts ($AMD20251219P190) and $180 puts ($AMD20251219P180) aren’t just bearish—they’re hedges against short-term volatility while whales play the long game.

3 Concrete Trade Setups for AMD’s Volatility Window

1. Call diagonal spread: Buy 12/19 $230 call ($AMD20251219C230) at $X, sell 12/12 $225 call ($AMD20251212C225) to offset cost. Targets $240–$250 if China news breaks Friday.
2. Stock entry: Buy AMD at $218–$219 (just above 30D support) with stop below $217.91 intraday low. First target: reclaim $224.84 high, then push toward 30D MA at $234.34.
3. Put hedge: Buy 12/19 $190 put ($AMD20251219P190) at $Y for downside insurance. Protects against 200D MA breakdown while keeping bullish exposure intact.

Volatility on the Horizon: Why This Week Matters

The 12/12 expiration is a speed bump, not a roadblock. If AMD cracks $224.84 before Friday, the 12/19 $230 call ($AMD20251219C230) becomes a monster. But don’t get greedy—the real fireworks happen if the Commerce Department drops a MI300 approval between now and 12/19. That’s when $320 calls ($AMD20251219C320) could go from speculative to strategic.

Bottom line: This isn’t a “buy and forget” trade. AMD’s options and fundamentals are aligned for a directional move, but you need to time it right. Watch the $217.91 support like a hawk—break that, and the puts take center stage. Stay above it, and those $230 calls could be your golden ticket.