AMD Gains CPU Market Share as Intel Lags Behind

AMD continues to gain CPU market share over Intel, with a 120 basis point QoQ increase to 29.5% in the second quarter. Bank of America expects AMD's market share to reach 30%/31% in 2026/2027, driven by ASP gains. ARM also gains market share in servers, with a 15% YoY growth expected in 2027. The analyst reiterated Buy ratings on AMD and ARM stocks, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Intel.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and ARM-based processors continued to gain market share against Intel (INTC) in the second quarter of 2025, according to a Bank of America review. AMD's CPU market share increased by 120 basis points quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to 29.5%, while ARM processors showed strong growth in the server segment.

In the PC market, overall CPU units increased by 1% QoQ and 6% year-over-year (YoY). AMD's shipments increased by 1%, while Intel's shipments rose by 2%. ARM-based shipments, however, declined by 4%. Intel gained modest notebook unit share in Q2, but continued to lose desktop unit share. AMD's Ryzen 9000 series refreshed offerings outperformed Intel in terms of average selling prices (ASPs), contributing to a decline in Intel's PC value share [1].

In the server segment, overall units increased by 2% QoQ. Intel remained flat, while AMD increased by 1% and ARM processors showed strong growth at 15%. AMD's server value share reached 37.1%, its highest level in over a decade. ARM's server unit share reached 13.0%, up 150 basis points. Bank of America expects ARM server adoption to continue growing, potentially reaching over 15% unit share by 2027 [1].

AMD's CPU revenue share reached 29.5% in Q2, up 120 basis points QoQ, extending its 300 basis point gain in 2024. Bank of America expects AMD to reach 30% value share in 2026 and 31% in 2027, driven primarily by ASP gains projected at 25% YoY for 2025 [1].

The analyst reiterated Buy ratings on AMD and ARM stocks, while maintaining a Neutral rating on Intel. The expected CPU share losses for Intel could be offset by potential strategic improvements under CEO Pat Gelsinger and gross margin benefits as Intel brings more wafer production in-house in 2026 [1].

Inference Leadership Poised To Accelerate Market Share Gains

AMD's MI350 GPU, introduced in June, has shown strong performance in inference workloads, delivering up to 40 percent more tokens per dollar at lower system complexity. High-profile cluster wins and sovereign AI engagements reinforce AMD's ability to capture a disproportionate share of the inference market, which is expected to grow at an 80 percent annual clip [2].

Valuation Upside Supported By Diversified Growth Catalysts

A dual-scenario discounted cash flow model yields a base-case target of $183 per share, implying 15 percent upside, and a bull-case valuation near $982 per share, reflecting up to 6× returns under sustained 80–100 percent revenue growth [2].

Tariff Exposure And Supply-Chain Resilience Underpin Risk Management

Prospective 100 percent U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports create uncertainty, but AMD's key foundry partner TSMC meets exemption criteria through its Arizona fabs and $165 billion domestic investment pledge. Packaging and testing suppliers ASE and Siliconware are actively evaluating U.S. expansion projects, while only Tongfu Microelectronics lacks a clear U.S. footprint and may face punitive levies [2].

Shares of AMD surged 5.4% on August 13, 2025, driven by a research note suggesting that competitor Nvidia may delay its next-generation "Rubin" AI chips. The stock's climb contrasted with a broader sell-off in the technology sector. The potential delay by Nvidia signals that AMD's technology is making significant strides, creating a more competitive landscape in the AI hardware market [3].

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amd-and-arm-continue-to-gain-cpu-market-share-against-intel--bofa-93CH-4191263
[2] https://www.tradingnews.com/news/amd-stock-at-168-usd-surges-after-q2-bears-mi350-ramp-
[3] https://paginasiete.bo/advanced-micro-devices-amd-stock-jumps-on-report-of-nvidia-chip-delay-amd-stock-price/